(News Bulletin 247) – Without starting a marked profit-taking phase, the CAC 40 has “retreated” – it has in fact released the pressure on the accelerator pedal -, releasing 0.21% to 7,142 points on Thursday, under the effect of the decline in “Value” cases such as Alstom (-1.08% at 32.88 euros), BNP-Paribas (-1.10% at 59.52 euros), Renault (-1.14% at 34.28 euros), Carrefour (-1.50% to 15.805 euros), Vinci (-1.70% to 91.30 euros), Bouygues (-2.02% to 31.50 euros) or Sanofi (-2 , 57% to 88.27 euros), red lantern.
No change in underlying market psychology at this point, however. The unidirectional direction of the purchase is not called into question.
In the statistical chapter yesterday, the manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed, came out with a strong surprise increase, to 39.0, beating the target flatly. On the other hand, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits were slightly disappointing. They will have had the advantage of not putting more pressure on the Fed. In addition, the OECD now estimates that the French economy should grow around 6.8% this year (against 6.3% previously), thanks to a stronger-than-expected recovery since the summer, in a study published. Thursday.
To be complete on the value front, outside the flagship index, Vallourec fell 14.38% to 6.22 euros with results below expectations and a downward revision of the annual target, due in particular to rising metal prices. Over 8 million parts changed hands.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the same dichotomy between Value and short-term growth, the Nasdaq Composite picking up its forward market (+ 0.45% to 15,993 points) and the Dow Jones taking a breath yesterday (-0.17% to 35,870 points). The S&P 500, by nature of its composition, will have once again played the medians, grabbing 0.34% to 4,704 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1350$. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 79,00$.
To be continued on the statistical agenda this Friday, in priority a speech by Ms. Lagarde, President of the Fed, at 9:30 am for the opening of a banking congress in Frankfurt. Already published, at 08:00, German “producer” prices soared, at + 3.8% monthly (from one month to another), literally exploding the consensus.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
As we said in the preamble, the CAC 40 index, a benchmark barometer, however imperfect it may be, of the Paris Stock Exchange, is in the process of regularly registering new absolute highs. After the bullish gap of Monday 01/11, it is a powerful structure in “three white soldiers advancing” which has been validated. The 5 candles of the week in question also display a green body: systematically, the closing exceeded the opening, whatever the level of opening compared to the day before. These two observations materialize, together with the transaction volumes, a phase of momentum during expression.
The three shadows on the candles of 05, 08 and 09/11 show a perfectly legitimate breathlessness, but without profit taking. Same observation for November 16, 17 and 18. Ultimately, an entry into the breathing phase of prices is legitimately to be anticipated. A flat breathing in any case, at first, as the absence of divergence between prices and volumes is encouraging.
Positive opinion on the scale of the upcoming session.
PREVISION
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is quoting above the support at 6960.00 points.
Hourly data graph
Daily data graph
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Source: Tradingsat
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