CAC 40: Entering a more technical phase

(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 index had a somewhat complicated last session of the week, due to an acceleration in the decline of Value records. Result on the graphical level: a candle whose amplitude covers the low points and the weekly highs, a bearish encompassing, in powerful volumes. However, the ability to react during the session is noteworthy. On the securities side, among the Value files most affected on Friday, let us quote Vinci (-2.90% to 88.65 euros), Veolia Environnement (-3.01% to 29.02 euros), BNP-Paribas (-3.02 % to 57.72 euros), Airbus (-3.41% to 109.40 euros), URW (-3.42% to 62.33 euros) and Renault (-3.94% to 32.93 euros), red lantern of the tricolor lighthouse index.

The specter of a winter marked by further hardening of health constraints has reappeared. Austria has just decreed a new general confinement of its population, and – a first in Europe! – compulsory vaccination from February 1. Germany does not rule out new confinement either, according to Health Minister Jens Spahn.

In the statistical chapter Friday, the German “producer” prices soared, to + 3.8% monthly (from one month to another), literally exploding the consensus. No major US figure was on the agenda on Friday. As a reminder Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index came out unexpectedly sharply up to 39.0, beating the target flat. On the other hand, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits were slightly disappointing. They will have had the advantage of not putting more pressure on the Fed.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the same persistent dichotomy between industrial issues and Value in the broad sense, penalized by health risk and growth issues, primarily technological, which remains supported by the accommodative nature of monetary policy. If the Dow Jones lost 0.75% to 35,601 points on Friday, the S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, contracted slightly, from 0.14% to 4 697 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1270$. A barrel of WTI, one of the risk appetite barometers in financial markets, was trading around $ 75.80.

To be followed on the statistical agenda this Monday, as a priority, the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone at 4:00 p.m. and sales of second-hand homes in the United States at 4:00 p.m. also.

Note, for holders of RD positions: The monthly liquidation will take place at the end of the session on Thursday, November 25.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Friday’s technical event does not threaten the underlying bullish bias at this point. The index is in the process of defining the amplitude of a future legitimate consolidation pattern, whose movements that will compose it may be volatile. Entering a choppy and more technical phase is the preferred scenario at this stage.

PREVISION

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing the 7500.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 6960.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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