Opinion

Tropical cyclones became less common in the 20th century on Earth due to climate change

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According to a new international study, most areas, except the North Atlantic, have had far fewer cyclones in recent years.

The tropical cyclones on Earth were less frequent in the 20th century worldwide than in the 19th century, as a new international scientific research. THE the only exception appears to be the North Atlantic region where tropical cyclones have increased over time. The new study, however, leads to the conclusion that climate change ultimately has the effect of reducing the number of tropical cyclones on the planet.

The researchersled by Meteorologist Dr. Savin Chad of the University of the Federation of Australia, who published the relevant journal in the scientific journal on climate change “Nature Climate Change”, used historical recordssatellite data and modeling data, concluding that the global annual number of tropical cyclones decreased by about 13% between 1900-2000, compared to the period 1850-1900.

In most parts of the world the decline accelerated after 1950, mainly due to attenuation of tropical atmospheric circulation. Over time and as the planet’s temperature rises, the global pre-atmospheric environment has become more hostile to the formation of tropical cyclones.

The exception of the North Atlantic, where tropical cyclones have been on the rise in recent decades (since 1960), has not yet been adequately explained. However, even in this area the annual number of cyclones remains lower compared to pre-industrial levels.

It is not yet clear how tropical cyclones or hurricanes – which are one of the most destructive natural phenomena – change under the influence of anthropogenic “greenhouse gas” emissions. On the one hand, the rising ocean temperature is expected to increase cyclones, but, on the other hand, changes in atmospheric circulation are thought to have the opposite effect.

Tropical cyclones are born from smaller “outbreaks” that last from a few hours to a few weeks, at low latitudes above tropical ocean warm waters and at least 1,000 kilometers from the Ecuador. Once formed, these cyclones usually move west and toward the poles before reaching mid-latitudes, where the colder surface of their seas weakens.

Climate change is affecting thermodynamic conditions that give rise to tropical cyclones, changing their frequency, intensity, geographical distribution and seasonality. Despite their lower frequency, however, the intensity of tropical cyclones has increased compared to the past, with all that entails for their destructiveness.

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