Greece: 2-5 degrees Celsius rise in temperature by the end of the century

The temperature in Greece is expected to increase by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to climate models, said Climpact scientific officer and director of the Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development of the National Observatory of Athens (EAA), Nikos Michalopoulos during an event for the National Network on Climate Change – Climpact.

“The climate models tell us that depending on the measures we take, we will have an increase in temperature that will reach levels of the order of 4.5 – 5 degrees Celsius, which is an extremely difficult condition. The intermediate scenario can reach an increase of 2 – 2.5 degrees Celsius, however we are almost already in Athens at 2 degrees Celsius”.

Presenting some of the results of the White Paper and the first phase of Climpact, Mr. Michalopoulos emphasized that the Mediterranean is heading full speed into a future climate that will be warmer and drier, which will also have significant effects on agriculture.

In addition, there has been a significant increase in the number of heatwave days over the last 30 years as heatwaves are now estimated to occupy about 35 days per year, while frost days are considerably reduced.

At the same time, rainfall is now more intense, while severe weather events related to rainfall have almost tripled in the last 20 years.

As Mr. Michalopoulos noted, until the 1990s the Eastern Mediterranean had exactly the same behavior as the average temperature that prevailed globally, however, from 1990 onwards it begins to separate. “Since 1990, the rate of temperature increase in our region has been accelerating and is 2-3 times faster than what is happening in the rest of the world,” he pointed out. Moreover, the temperature of the sea follows the increase in the temperature in the atmosphere as in various areas, such as Pylos, Athos and Crete, a gradual increase in the temperature in the sea is observed which, like in the atmosphere, has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius and almost approaching 2 degrees.

At the same time, an important conclusion of the White Paper is that the same rain falls in fewer days, as while no change in the amount of precipitation is actually observed, it is observed in the number of days on which we have precipitation. “The amount of rain that falls seems to have not changed statistically, instead the rain falls on fewer days. Same rain in fewer days so higher rain heights. The number of rain events exceeding 30mm in the last 30 years has almost doubled. So the same rain in fewer days and with rains that have a greater amount, which favors flooding phenomena and also affects agriculture. The rain is left unused by the soil, so it helps the drought phenomena”, explains Mr. Michalopoulos.

At the same time, the climate models, as mentioned by Mr. Michalopoulos, show a decrease in the percentage of precipitation, mainly more strongly in the eastern regions, where water is already in short supply, such as the Eastern Peloponnese and Eastern Crete.

It is noted that the full results of the Climpact White Paper are expected at the end of 2022. Among other things, it will include the effects of the climate crisis on tourism, agriculture, forest fires, energy, etc. It also seeks to highlight the need for further research on the effects of climate change, while researching early warning systems that can be developed for natural disasters as well as severe weather events.

RES-EMP

View the news feed and get the latest news.