Around 7.9 million people in Greece are expected to experience temperatures above 37 °C, while around 300,000 people will experience temperatures above 39 °C
Unfavorables will remain the pyrometeorological conditions in the largest part of the country during the new week (25/07 – 31/07/2022), based on the latest available forecast data analyzed by the FLAME pyrometeorological team of the National Observatory of Athens (EAA) / Meteo.gr.
The reason for this is the persistence of high temperatures, which in combination with dry atmospheric conditions favors the efficient increase in the flammability of forest fuels. In addition, from Wednesday 27/07/2022 we expect strengthening of the northerly winds in the Aegean until at least the weekend of 30/07-31/07/2022.
Under the very hot and dry conditions already prevailing in our country from Friday 22/07/2022, the available forest fuels (especially the dead matter, such as small branches and trunks, leaves, needles, but also small trees/bushes) are drying up quickly. This has the effect of facilitating their ignition if there is a source of heat, and then favoring the maintenance of combustion and the rapid transmission (spread) of the fire.
In particular, for Monday 25/07/2022, the moisture content of dead forest fuels is expected to be below 10% in a large part of Greece, as results from high-resolution numerical simulations operationally implemented at EAA / Meteo.gr (Figure 1 ).
Fuel moisture values below 10% are extremely favorable for easy ignition, sustaining and rapid fire propagation.
Overall, the risk of occurrence and spread of forest fires on Monday 25/07/2022 is expected to be high/very high in Attica, K. and N. Evia, Ilia, Messinia, Laconia, Argolis, Crete, Cyclades, Samos, Ikaria, Chios, Lesvos , Lemnos and Samothraki, and locally in Dodecanese, Fthiotida, Thessaly, and North Macedonia (Figure 2).
The FLAME pyrometeorological team of EAA / meteo.gr will continue to monitor the evolution of pyrometeorological conditions, issuing new warnings whenever deemed appropriate.
At the same time, the persistence of very high temperatures during Monday 25/07, in a large part of the country, will result in the exposure of most of the population to maximum temperatures above 37 °C. As shown in Figure 3, approximately 7.9 million people are expected to experience temperatures above 37 °C, while approximately 300 thousand people will experience temperatures above 39 °C. It is noted that the demographic data refer to the permanent residents of each region, while any movements (e.g. due to summer holidays) that temporarily change the local populations have not been taken into account.
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