The decarbonization plans of several oil giants are “incompatible” with the goals of the Paris Agreement to avoid devastating warming, according to a study released on Tuesday (16).
Published in the journal Nature Communications, the study carried out by an international team of experts analyzes six emission scenarios proposed by three European energy giants: Equinor, BP and Shell, as well as those prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Then, they compared the scenarios with those described in a report by the United Nations climate expert group (GIEC) to limit the average global warming to 1.5°C.
“Most of the scenarios we analyzed are incompatible with the Paris Agreement, as they fail to limit warming to below 2°C and will largely exceed the 1.5°C threshold,” said Robert Brecha of Climate Analytics think tank. , the main co-author of the study.
The analysis concludes that Shell’s scenario, called Sky, would lead to a warming of 1.81°C between now and 2069.
A Shell spokesperson told AFP that this Sky scenario is just one possibility among many and added that its teams make “assessments based on plausible assumptions and quantifications, which are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes.”
In turn, Equinor’s Rebalance scenario would result in warming of 1.73°C above pre-industrial levels between now and 2060, according to the research.
British Petroleum’s (BP) Rapid scenario would cause a warming peak of 1.73°C from today to 2058, while the Net Zero scenario would lead to a maximum average warming of 1.65°C, according to the analysis.
Equinor declined to comment on the survey, while BP did not respond to requests for comment.
For the authors of the study, only the IEA’s “Net Zero 2050” scenario is fully compliant with the Paris Agreement. Signed in 2015, the agreement led nations to commit to limiting global warming to a level “well below” -2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, or +1.5°C if possible. .
