The climate of urgency to contain global warming should prevail in the next two weeks at COP26, in Glasgow, Scotland, where diplomats from more than 200 countries negotiate the latest adjustments to the regulation of the Paris Agreement and seek solutions for financing, compensation for losses and damages and the increase of climate goals.
The 26th edition of the UN Conference of the Parties on climate change is considered the most important after the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, as it represents a last chance for countries to achieve the agreement’s objective: containing global warming by up to 2°C, preferably close to 1.5ºC (in a world that has already warmed 1.1ºC).
Last August, the report published by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) brought a scientific definition to the discussion of the climate emergency. According to the document, to guarantee the safest climate scenario (with warming of up to 1.5ºC), the world must reduce greenhouse gas emissions immediately.
According to the report, signed by 234 authors from 65 countries, the world will have an 83% chance of containing global warming between 1.5ºC and 1.9ºC if it reaches its peak of emissions immediately, limiting itself to issuing a budget of 300 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (the main cause of global warming). Last year, the world emitted 34 gigatonnes of CO2.
The global cut in greenhouse gas emissions is expected to be 55% by 2030, according to the IPCC. However, the commitments announced by the countries so far should reduce only 7.5% of emissions by the end of the decade, according to the Emissions Gap report, published last Tuesday (26) by the UNEP (United Nations Program for the environment).
“Two members of the G20, Brazil and Mexico, have set targets that lead to an increase in emissions,” says the UNEP report. The Brazilian target, presented at the end of last year by the then Minister of the Environment, Ricardo Salles, is accused of violating the Paris Agreement by stepping back on the commitment.
In a maneuver dubbed climate pedaling, the government changed the calculation basis without adjusting the percentage value of the 43% emission reduction target by 2030, which in practice results in higher emissions than those agreed in previous commitments.
The government has signaled that it should present a new climate target at the beginning of the COP, with an adjustment from 43% to 45%. The new number, however, would not correspond to the adjustment needed to avoid pedaling.
According to the calculation made by the Talanoa Institute’s Policy for Whole project, the target should be 55%, to maintain the commitment made by the country in 2015 by adjusting the absolute values ​​of emissions calculated according to the most recent inventory (the 4th National Communication ), and the most recent IPCC reference (report AR-5). If the government uses an older IPCC reference, the SAR, the corresponding value should be 51%.
“These values ​​are to maintain the commitment to reduce emissions signed in 2015, which is the minimum. In the Climate and Development study, we point out scenarios of 66% to 82% of emission reduction, which would lead to R$92 billion in investments , would generate more than 120 thousand jobs and put Brazil on the path of sustainable growth”, says Natalie Unterstell, president of Instituto Talanoa.
Regaining the country’s credibility in the environmental area is Brazil’s main challenge at the COP. Environment Minister Joaquim Leite, who heads the Brazilian delegation, has declared to the press that the conference is an opportunity for the country to show its commitment to environmental policy and the investments made since April, when President Jair Bolsonaro promised at the Climate Summit, convened by the United States, to double resources for monitoring against deforestation and contribute to the Paris Agreement.
According to government interlocutors, Brazilian negotiators would be willing to collaborate with the approval of agenda items that were blocked by the country in previous years, such as details of the regulation of a global carbon market. In exchange, they expect a reduction in the demand on environmental policy and an increase in the country’s international recognition as a clean economy.
Last week, agendas of the embassies of the United States and the United Kingdom with the Brazilian press cast a tone of confidence on Brazilian diplomacy, highlighting the Brazilian potential for decarbonization and betting on unlocking the negotiations.
COP26 also begins marked by the increased political will to deal with the climate agenda. With the confirmed presence of 120 heads of state for the opening of the conference, the first two days should be taken by speeches by world leaders, such as the presidents of France, Emmanuel Macron, of the United States, Joe Biden, and the British prime minister, Boris Johnson.
​The expectation is that they can present new commitments for immediate implementation. However, according to observers who follow the negotiations, the pressure for great results can make agreements difficult and generate frustration similar to that of COP15.
The conference, which took place in Copenhagen in 2009, ended with no results, shaking global confidence in the multilateral system and in the possibility of negotiating a major climate agreement —which would only come in 2015, in Paris.
One of the debts generated in Copenhagen must be collected in Glasgow. At the end of that conference, amidst the lack of results, the bloc of developed countries announced a commitment to finance climate action in the amount of US$ 100 billion, to be provided by 2020 and which would become annual thereafter.
Last Monday (25), a report from the bloc admitted that only in 2023 they should reach the revenue promised for last year. The postponement, repeated in previous years, increases the distrust and frustration of developing countries, whose climate goals are largely conditioned to international cooperation.
Another payment that should intensify the negotiations is linked to compensation for damages to countries that are already suffering from extreme weather events linked to the climate crisis, such as storms, droughts, cyclones and hurricanes. The IPCC report for the first time quantified the influence of global warming on these events — in the worst cases, heat waves are up to 39 times more frequent than the current scenario.
On the other hand, world leaders began to accept with more optimism the challenge of containing global warming by 1.5ºC. The objective, which marks the limit to avoid the flooding and disappearance of island countries, was considered improbable in the Paris signature.
With scientific, technological and political advances in the last six years, in addition to the call of Joe Biden, who led the G20 countries to agree to assume targets close to 1.5ºC, the target was resumed and should set the tone for demands at the COP .
“We must act decisively to keep the 1.5°C objective alive,” says UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
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