Research estimates how much deforestation could increase if mining is allowed in the Amazon

A model developed by Brazilian researchers showed that opening up protected areas in the Amazon for mining projects would lead to the devastation of 183 square kilometers (km²) of forest resulting directly from the new mines and the loss of an additional 7,626 km² from direct and indirect impacts to the construction of infrastructure. Scientists mapped 242 mineral deposits in the Cobre e Associados National Reserve (Renca). Deforestation would represent 16.6% of the 47 thousand km² of the total area of ​​Renca, located between the states of Amapá and Pará.

This scenario would require 1,463 km of new roads to facilitate access to the region, causing indirect deforestation (estimated to be 40 times greater than direct mining devastation) and landscape fragmentation, with a significant loss of biodiversity and forest ecosystem services.

The result of the study was published in the scientific journal Nature Sustainability amid discussions of bills in the National Congress that provide for the authorization of mining in protected areas, including Indigenous Lands (TIs). In addition, deforestation in the Amazon has been recording high rates, having reached 8,590.33 km² between August 2021 and July 2022, the third largest since 2015, according to data from Deter, a tool of the National Institute for Space Research ( inpe).

The work modeled five mining expansion scenarios for 30 years at Renca. Currently, nine Conservation Units cover 90% of the reserve’s area, being two TIs, three areas of integral protection and four of sustainable use. Mining is not legally permitted within this territory and the protected areas that are in Renca.

In 2017, then-President Michel Temer tried to end the protection of the reserve on the grounds of commercial exploitation, but he backed out after pressure from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society.

“One of the research innovations was the modeling of future impacts of possible new areas for mining and the infrastructure needed to reach them, such as the construction of roads. We believe that discussions and proposals to reduce protected areas should consider the impact on the forest. , its biodiversity and ecosystem services. Therefore, there is a need to have a strategic plan for these cases,” environmental engineer Juliana Siqueira-Gay told Agência FAPESP.

She is the first author of the article, which is part of her doctoral thesis defended at the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo (Poli-USP). For her work, she was chosen by the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA) to receive the 2022 IAIA Youth Award, aimed at recognizing achievements in the field of environmental impact assessment by association members under 35 years. Recently, the researcher received an honorable mention from the Capes de Tese Award, the institution that financed her scholarship.

For USP professor Luis Enrique Sánchez, Siqueira-Gay’s advisor and co-author of the article, work can contribute to decision-making.

“The research shows that before changing rules to reduce conservation areas, or opening Indigenous Lands for mineral production or even suspending the Renca decree, it is necessary to evaluate the impacts through environmental studies with a strategic character, and not case by case. decisions can have implications on a regional scale. We show that impact assessments of government policies need to be carried out”, completes Sánchez, who receives support from FAPESP.

The professor cites another study, published in the journal One Earth, in 2020, by the group and with the participation of researchers from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), dealing specifically with Indigenous Lands. At the time, they calculated that mining in these areas could increase the impact on the forest by 20% and generate losses of up to US$ 5 billion in ecosystem services, such as rainfall regulation and food production.

Scenarios

The group developed spatial models of land use change to simulate the expansion of mines and the associated infrastructure to access them, including the Renca area and surroundings, for a total of around 250,000 km² (which corresponds to 5% of the territory of the Legal Amazon).

Five relevant scenarios were set up for the mining permit policy and increase in other human activities in Renca. In one of them, the reserve decree remains active and no conservation area changes. In the other four, the decree is suspended, but points are placed for each one: 1) changes the legislation on Indigenous Lands, allowing mining and construction of access roads; 2) modifies the management plan for sustainable use areas to allow for the activity; 3) allows mining in TIs and areas of sustainable use; and 4) suspends requirements in all Renca Conservation Units.

In none of the models there was a desirable conservation result, and all of them, to some extent, showed an increase in deforestation, loss of highly biodiverse areas and increased landscape fragmentation. In some cases a long and expensive road network would be necessary, creating additional pressure to open up protected areas even further and generating further forest fragmentation.

The researchers do not deal specifically with gold mines, but mention that the region is known for harboring several deposits, already occupied by illegal mining. “Given the current growth of these illegal activities in the Amazon due to the price of gold and political support, opening up the region to exploration, mining and infrastructure would induce greater informal occupation in search of gold deposits,” the researchers write.

According to Sánchez, in the current context of the Amazon rainforest, where there is low governance, pressures on the area are increasing. “Access routes, such as roads, are gateways and facilitate other activities, whether legal or illegal. When there is low governance, the impact of mining multiplies”, says the professor.

A report released last year by MapBiomas, a collaborative network formed by NGOs, universities and technology startups that maps land cover and use in Brazil, calculated that the mined area in the country grew sixfold between 1985 and 2020. from the analysis of satellite images with the aid of artificial intelligence, points to a jump from 310 km² to 2,060 km² in the period, with part of this expansion in the Amazon (in 2020, three out of every four mined hectares were in the region, with the majority related to mines).

“In the models, we use mineral deposits without dividing by types of ore, so we do not treat a possible gold mining differently, for example. We know that there are already many deposits in the region and we cannot neglect that the construction of new roads would make it easier more access”, explains Siqueira-Gay, who currently works on the topic of mining and deforestation at Instituto Escolhas, a non-profit association that produces studies and analyzes on sustainability.

The researcher also mentions the energy transition, which in the coming years should pressure a change in the demand profile for transition ores to supply industries such as solar, wind and electric cars. “The importance of protecting the landscape is a topic that will continue to be discussed. This opening of new areas dialogues with the work we have done.”