Without change, Brazil can increase greenhouse gas emissions by 137% by 2030, says study

Brazil could increase the emission of GHG (greenhouse gases) by 137% if the environmental policies of the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) are maintained in the coming years, according to a study by Coppe (Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra for Graduate Studies and Engineering Research) from UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) released this Thursday (15).

The researchers used deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions data to simulate four scenarios, two positive and two negative.

One of the negative scenarios indicates that Brazil will emit 2.4 GtCO2e (billions of tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2030. This number is 91% higher than the 1.3 GtCO2e target defined in the NDC (National Determined Contribution), document which brings together the commitments adopted by a country under the Paris Agreement to mitigate the effects of climate change.

In its NDC, last updated this year, Brazil commits to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030, reaching the level of 1.3 GtCO2e.

The worst case scenario indicates a 137% increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, reaching 3 GtCO2e.

“Brazil has an international commitment to reduce its carbon footprint by 50% by 2030. I wonder what the response of the international community will be if we get there in 2030 and, instead of decreasing, emissions double”, says Ana Toni , director of the ICS (Climate and Society Institute). The entity is a supporter of the study, as well as the Talanoa Institute and the Clima Center.

Two other simulations, the positive ones, called additional mitigation scenarios (CMA), indicate what could happen if there were, for example, a radical drop in deforestation, an increase in reforestation in public and private areas and carbon pricing, or that is, a value embedded in products and services related to the gases emitted.

In the additional mitigation scenario 1 (CMA1), Brazil would record an emission of 1 GtCO2e in 2030. In the CMA2, in which actions to combat climate change are more effective, the country would emit 0.5 GtCO2e. Thus, in both cases the Brazilian commitment assumed under the Paris Agreement would be honored.

In the country, the main reason for the increase in greenhouse gas emissions is deforestation, especially in the Amazon.

In 2021, 13 thousand km² were deforested in the Amazon. According to the researchers, if it continues at this rate, in the best scenario, Brazil will have a deforestation rate of 24,000 km² in the year 2030. And, in the worst scenario, it will reach almost 30,000 km² in 2030, equivalent to 12 times the size of the city of São Paulo.

In the positive simulations, in CMA1, the Amazon would register in 2030 a total of 5,950 km² deforested, while in CMA2 the Amazon would not register deforestation.

_{The Planeta em Transe project is supported by the Open Society Foundations.}