Bolsonaro advances in votes in cities that are champions of deforestation in the Amazon

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who has seen deforestation in the Amazon rise for three consecutive years throughout his term, won the first round of elections in eight of the ten most deforested cities in the region last year.

Bolsonaro had already led the vote in seven of these municipalities in the first round of 2018. This year, he turned the tables on one more and even expanded his vote in six cities.

Proportionally, the president’s fourth largest vote in the country took place in the fifth most deforested city last year, Novo Progresso (PA), where he obtained 79.6% of the votes. In 2018, Bolsonaro had received 72.7% of the votes in the city.

The municipality in western Pará, located on the edge of the BR-163, was the scene of the so-called “fire day”, in August 2019, when farmers, loggers and local businessmen took a coordinated action to set fire to a large area.

But chainsaws are not new to the region, in a process of land grabbing and agribusiness expansion that intensified with the paving of the highway in the early 2000s and grew again under Bolsonaro. The municipality has also experienced an increase in mining.

In the list of cities with the highest deforestation rates, Bolsonaro also increased his vote in Altamira (PA), from 54.3% in 2018 to 57.7% in 2022; in São Félix do Xingu (PA), from 52.7% to 63.1%; in Itaituba (PA), from 47.5% to 57.8%; in Apuí (AM), from 46.4% to 58.9%; and in Colniza (MT), from 62.1% to 71.1%.

In Porto Velho (RO), where he also won, the vote for the PL candidate remained stable, with a slight reduction (from 57.8% to 56.8%).

In Pacajá (PA), where Haddad had led in the first round of 2018, with 46.3%, this year Bolsonaro won with 55.3%.

Lula won only in Lábrea (AM), with 63.8% (a lower rate than Haddad had in 2018, 69.7%), and in Portel (PA), where he got 63.7%. In the city of Pará, Haddad was also ahead in 2018, but with a lower percentage: 58.2%.

The crossing was carried out by the Climate Observatory with data from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and the Prodes system, from Inpe (National Institute for Space Research). Prodes provides official data on annual deforestation in the Amazon.

A previous analysis carried out in 2018 shortly after the vote in the first round had already shown that Bolsonaro had led in most of the municipalities that historically deforested the most in the Amazon from 2000 to 2017, a period for which information is available at the municipality scale.

Haddad had even won more in the Legal Amazon as a whole than Bolsonaro (62.63% of municipalities against 37.36%, respectively), but it was precisely in the deforestation arc that Bolsonaro stood out, a fact that is repeated now.

It is no coincidence that all ten cities had high deforestation between 2018 and 2021, the latest data available from Prodes.

“This correlation between deforestation and voting for Bolsonaro makes perfect sense. Anyone who commits environmental crimes in this country has never been so benefited as they are now. Anyone who was a land grabber or illegal logger these days would certainly vote for him,” he told the newspaper. Sheet Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory.

The data is corroborated by other more recent information. In the months of August and September of this year, already in the electoral period, deforestation alerts went off in the Amazon, as another Inpe system, Deter, shows.

Monitoring, which is less accurate than Prodes and serves to alert inspections, which became almost non-existent in the Bolsonaro years, showed that in September there was the highest number of alerts in the historical series, which began in September 2015.

1,455 km were deforested^two last month, almost the size of the city of São Paulo, up 47.7% compared to September last year. The highest value for the month so far had been recorded in 2019 –1,454 km^two.

From January to September, the alerts already total 8,590 km^two, also the highest value since 2015 and 22.6% higher than the same period last year. The alerts added only from August and September this year already account for 36% of all that had been deforested, according to Deter, in the previous 12 months.

“It’s the end of the fair. People, seeing that they are at risk at the polls, are putting the chainsaw down”, continues Astrini.

For Paulo Barreto, a researcher at Imazon, a research institute based in Belém that also monitors deforestation in the Amazon, the impact of weakening environmental policies also remains.

“The vote map shows what is happening. The agro massively supports the president who loosened control. There was expectation on the part of Bolsonaro that he would continue — many do not believe in electoral research. Another part believes that Lula can win and wants to take advantage to deforest before he takes office”, he explains.

Astrini warns of what can happen until the end of the year.

“Fear is not just what they are cutting down in the forest, but what they are going to try to overthrow in Congress. Imagine what the months of November and December will be like in Congress. run to put to vote on projects stalled in the Senate, such as the PL on land grabbing [da regularização fundiária]environmental licensing, pesticides, and those in the Chamber, the time frame and mining in indigenous lands”, adds Astrini.

“It will be even more dangerous, of course, if Bolsonaro continues. But now they are going all or nothing. It will be a reflection of what is happening on the forest floor”, he says.

_{The Planeta em Transe project is supported by the Open Society Foundations.}