Amazonian ranchers are changing cattle production strategies in response to climate change. Breeders anticipate the sale of animals for confinement or slaughter because they are unable to fatten herds on scarce pastures due to severe droughts. The supply and quality of production may be affected, says a study.
The Brazilian cattle herd reached a historic record of 224.6 million animals in 2021, spread across more than 2.5 million agricultural establishments. About 40% of the herd is in the Legal Amazon, according to IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
Sustaining cattle in Amazonian pastures has always been a challenge during the dry season. The animals gain weight in the rainy season and lose weight drastically in the dry season, bringing losses to livestock farmers.
This “accordion effect” produces oscillations in the offer and makes the meat less tender, says the author of the study, Marin Skidmore, from the University of Illinois (USA).
The effect has become more dramatic – and costly – for producers as droughts increase in the region, exposing animals to hunger, thirst and heat.
Skidmore analyzed nearly four million commercial cattle transactions operated on 172,000 farms in Rondônia and compared them to ten-year climate variations. Data are from the Animal Transport Guide and satellites from the Climate Hazards Center (USA). She also interviewed dozens of ranchers in the region.
Skidmore found that ranchers are outsourcing the fattening of animals in droughts, selling them to properties capable of confining or keeping cattle on reclaimed pastures. When temperatures rise too high, they sell straight to slaughter.
These are measures to avoid financial losses with thin cattle and high confinement costs, such as feed, inputs and technological structure.
This scenario led to a greater dependence on a few farms equipped to withstand droughts and a greater specialization of farms in caring for the different stages of cattle (calving, rearing and final fattening).
Ranchers anticipate the severity of droughts by observing rainfall irregularities in the transition between the wet and dry season, which corresponds to scientific observations, according to the study.
Eduardo Assad, climatologist at FGV-SP (Fundação Getulio Vargas), estimates that ranchers only “postpone the problem”, as climate models point to an increase in droughts in the region. The economic impacts could be “irreversible” in the long term if changes are not made, he warns.
Because they are very profitable activities in the short term, part of the large farmers are not concerned about possible damage and climate losses in the future. “At some point, they’re going to lose a lot of money,” Assad reckons. Another way out has been to expand the production area to compensate for losses, says Carlos Nobre, climatologist at USP (University of São Paulo).
Skidmore also showed that cattle supply became more unstable, declining after two years of extreme drought, although initially increasing with increased sales for slaughter.
At the beginning of the severe drought of 2016, caused by El Niño, ranchers in Rondônia sold 1.5 million animals for fattening, compared to 1 million sold the previous year. About 20% more were sold for slaughter. The event impacted the supply of cattle in Rondônia until 2019, says Skidmore.
She says that “if Brazil continues experiencing extreme droughts, we could have effects on the world price of meat”. The country is the world’s largest exporter of cattle (25% among top traders) and has the second largest herd in the world (16% of the market), according to the US Department of Agriculture.
About 7% of the Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) comes from agriculture and livestock and droughts bring tangible damage to cutting-edge activities in the sector. The 2021/2022 soybean crop suffered losses of around BRL 90 billion in just three states, according to Embrapa Soja (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation).
Cattle confinements gained relevance in this scenario, increasing by 442% in the country between 1990 and 2017. About 10% of the herd live in confinement and should grow by 5% in 2022. In the Amazon, the practice is expanding rapidly due to the scarcity of land and greater demand for meat in the country. Although more productive and associated with less deforestation, they pollute more and provide less animal welfare, according to research by USP.
The boitel (“hotel” for cattle) is another alternative for confinement on the rise, in which the producer rents the service of fattening the animals before selling them to slaughterhouses.
Climatologists heard by Sheet claim that major climate changes are underway in the Amazon in recent decades. Especially in the southern portion, an area with more than two million km², which goes from the Atlantic to the Bolivian Amazon.
Carlos Nobre says that the dry season has increased by up to five weeks in this region since 1979. Temperatures are higher (2 to 3ºC higher) and rainfall has reduced by up to 30% in the dry season. “It’s a very worrying situation,” he says.
These are phenomena caused by global climate change combined with deforestation, which today affects more than 40% of the southern Amazon, where livestock is concentrated in the biome.
El Niño is more aggressive since the 1970s due to climate change and will trigger more extreme weather events, according to scientific projections.
Deforestation drastically alters the water cycle in the Amazon. During the dry season, the forest guarantees rainfall by accessing the water accumulated in the rainy season, with its deep roots, returning moisture to the atmosphere. “This characteristic disappears when you have large areas of pasture”, as the grasses have roots smaller than one meter, says Carlos Nobre.
Deforestation causes dry spells in the south of the Amazon (dry days within the rainy season), research has shown, and reduces soybean productivity, according to research from Minas Gerais. “That [ocorrência dos veranicos] is a disaster for the country’s agricultural production”, warns Eduardo Assad.
Philip Fearnside, a scientist at INPA (National Institute for Research in the Amazon), adds that “Brazil’s great asset is to get two soybean harvests a year, and this is threatened with an increase in droughts”. Droughts also make the forest vulnerable to fires and lead “some trees to die of thirst inside the forest”, he laments.
Livestock is today the main driver of deforestation in the Amazon, replacing around 76% of the deforested areas, followed by agricultural crops (13%), says Carlos Nobre.
Skidmore showed in another survey that farms with a larger area deforested produce less cattle and sell them earlier in the production chain.
Largely extensive (based on pastures) and historically not very productive, Amazonian livestock farming develops in degraded pastures, characteristic of 40% of Amazonian pastures, according to a survey.
Recovered pastures increase livestock productivity and “shield the Amazon” from deforestation, says Assad. “The pasture must be taken care of like a crop”, with fertilizing, irrigation, etc., he recommends.
High temperatures punish Amazonian cattle, pressuring breeders to sell them for slaughter instead of risking fattening in confinement or on pasture. This resulted in a decrease in the average age of animals slaughtered in Rondônia, which may be affecting the quality of the meat, according to Skidmore.
The heat causes intense discomfort in the animals, which start to eat less, reducing productivity. Losses of animals reach 5%, according to a study.
Artificial shading, tree planting, cooling systems, heat-resistant breeds are some alternatives to thermal stress, but absent in much of the region.
Veterinarian VinÃcius Cruz, from Emater-Rondônia (Autarchic Entity for Technical Assistance and Rural Extension), believes that the biggest limiting factor in facing droughts in the region is the lack of technology incorporated into production. He advises 60 cattle ranchers. He explains that the different degrees of cattle confinement require the purchase and storage of food (corn and soy) and imported inputs, which are now more expensive due to the global energy crisis.
Around 85% of fertilizers are imported into Brazil. Eduardo Assad says that agricultural production costs have already risen this year and that “we will see the consequences of this on next year’s inflation”.
Cattle raiser Kassia Jane Freire de Almeida, from Ouro Preto do Oeste (RO), says there is greater environmental awareness on the part of small ranchers. Measures such as planting trees close to springs seek to reverse part of the damage to the forest. However, she assesses that most of the resources to face the drought are “economically inaccessible to the small producer”, such as irrigation of pastures.
Kassia regrets that it is common to see cattle weakened by hunger, thirst and heat seeking to cool off in rivers and dams, running the risk of getting bogged down and dying.
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