The pandemic was just a breather for the climate and global emissions of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, which once again approached record levels, points out a study released on Thursday (4).
The pandemic brutally slowed the world economy and, with it, the pollution of the planet by the consumption of fossil energy. Total emissions fell 5.4% in 2020, but are expected to rise again in 2021, no less than 4.9%, less than 1% of the 2019 record, according to a study by the international consortium of scientists Global Carbon Project. during COP26.
Gas and coal emissions are of particular concern, as they will grow this year more than they fell in 2020. The report finds that economic reactivation has returned to being based on fossil fuels.
Emissions due to oil are expected to increase 4.4% in 2021. They will not return to 2019 levels, but the authors point out that the transport sector has not yet recovered to pre-crisis levels.
“This report is a bucket of cold water,” co-author Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change at the University of East Anglia, commented in an interview with AFP. “It shows what happens in the real world, while here in Glasgow we talk about dealing with climate change.”
No ‘structural change’
The consequence of this reheating of the economy and the planet is that the ideal objective of limiting the increase in temperature to 1.5ºC is becoming increasingly distant.
The planet has already experienced an increase between 1.1°C and 1.2°C compared to the pre-industrial era. At the current rate, the world has only eight years to have a 50% chance of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The worst student is China, the country where the pandemic began, responsible for 31% of CO2 emissions. As its economy recovered before the rest of the world, that percentage could change.
The drop in global activity due to the pandemic “was never a structural change. Leaving the car temporarily in the garage or exchanging it for an electric vehicle is not the same thing,” Corinne said.
The recovery “was stronger than expected,” said Glen Peters of the International Climate Research Center, another author of the study.
new growth
On the other hand, emissions in 2021 will fall in the United States and the European Union by 3.7% and 4.2%, respectively, according to the study. The United States accounts for 14% of global emissions, and the EU for 7%.
The demand for energy far exceeds the million-dollar investments to change the model, from fossil fuels to renewable ones, warn experts. But hope remains.
In the 2010s, 23 countries grew, but their emissions declined. Most of them were developed, which means the regulations and changes worked.
In order to achieve a balance between emissions and retention of gases in 2050, which is known as carbon neutrality, it would be necessary to stop emitting 1.4 billion tons per year. “In 2020, during the pandemic, we had a drop of 1.6 billion tonnes, which shows the scale of action needed,” commented Corinne Le Quéré.
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