The state of São Paulo has not fulfilled its climate target of recent years, which is to reduce its greenhouse gases by 20% by 2020, based on 2005 figures. to zero these emissions by 2050.
This is despite the fact that emissions have decreased only about 0.7% in 15 years, according to data recently released by Seeg (System for Estimating Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases).
In 2005, São Paulo emitted about 142.8 million tons of CO2e (leia CO2 equivalent, a measure that generally sums all greenhouse gases). Since then, emissions have risen considerably and reached, in 2013, 170 million tons of CO2e.
In 2020, after a period of decline and with a considerable push from the pandemic, the state reached about 141.7 million tons of CO2and thrown into the air — by the original target, this figure should have been around 114 million tons of CO2and last year.
If this pace were maintained (which would be difficult to imagine, considering the technological evolution, and the worldwide concern and investment in the subject), it would take millennia for this figure to reach zero.
Considering the same period of time and throughout Brazil, there was a 19% reduction in emissions. But the situation is quite different from the São Paulo context.
In the country, the main source of emissions is deforestation, which, despite being currently at high levels, is still far from the more than 19,000 km² felled in 2005. In 2020, the deforested area was 10,900 km².
The control of emissions resulting from forest clearing is easier than in urban areas, as it does not depend on technological changes, but mainly on inspection actions and public policies to combat deforestation.
The climate issue in São Paulo has recently gained more ground, with the participation of João Doria (PSDB) at COP26, the United Nations conference on climate change, the main forum for negotiations on the subject on the international stage.
Along with other Brazilian governors, the toucan went to Glasgow, in the United Kingdom, to try to get away from the national image damaged by the conduct of environmental policy under Jair Bolsonaro (no party). The Brazilian president did not attend the meeting.
“It is a united world, in defense of the environment. And Brazil, through São Paulo and nine other state governments, also participates in defending the environment,” said the governor of São Paulo at the conference.
Doria also announced that FAPESP (Research Support Foundation of the State of São Paulo) is going to invest R$ 100 million in research on the preservation of the Amazon, in partnership with the states in the region.
He did not comment, however, on the fact that the state had not achieved the emission reduction target. The commitment was established in law 13.798, of 2009, signed by the then governor and now senator José Serra (PSDB) and his secretary of the Environment, Xico Graziano.
According to Eduardo Trani, the current State Undersecretary for the Environment, the state policy’s goal of reducing gases had a more aspirational than a practical sense. “Obviously we are not going to meet the 20%. But in some sectors we have evolved,” he says.
He cites as success points the demarcation of conservation units and the control of the destruction of the Atlantic rainforest in the state, which has achieved zero deforestation in recent years — below one hundred hectares.
The exception was 2020, according to the latest report by the NGO SOS Mata Atlântica, which indicated a 400% increase in deforestation, or more than 200 hectares. According to Trani, most of this was legal, that is, with authorization and following the rules of the São Paulo environmental agency.
“We have accomplished, in these ten years, something that other states have not achieved”, says the undersecretary, referring to the control of deforestation.
Trani also points out the 5% growth in native vegetation in the last ten years, according to data from the Forest Inventory, which led the state to a total vegetation cover of 22.9%.
The São Paulo law was enacted in 2009, at a time when Brazil was considered one of the world leaders in climate policy, under the administration of then President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The country was, for example, the first developing nation to present voluntary emission reduction targets.
In the same year, however, the matter ended up taking a hit in the international arena when COP15, which began with high expectations, ended without a pact to combat the climate crisis. The agreement would end up happening only six years later, with the Paris Agreement — which, in general, has as its main objective to keep global warming below 1.5 °C.
In the wake, the city of São Paulo also made climate commitments in that period. And also breached them. The goal was to reduce municipal emissions by 30% by 2012, based on 2003 emissions.
According to Natalie Unterstell, coordinator of the “Politics for Whole” project at the Talanoa Institute, that was a moment when all spheres of public power wanted to demonstrate their intention to decarbonise the economy, but with very distant horizons.
“It was with the Paris Agreement, in 2015, that we turned around. We recognize that everyone has to contribute and that such efforts need to be for real. That is, to be implemented”, says the expert. “They were voluntary targets, they were not linked to any sanction mechanism. But in the case of states that took over as state law, they could be challenged in court.”
Josilene Ferrer, advisor to the CEO of Cetesb (Environmental Company of the State of São Paulo) and professor at FAAP (Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation), says that the São Paulo law proposed a goal that was not supported by sufficient studies.
She points out that a challenge for the country is the broad renewable energy base, based mainly on hydroelectric plants. This changes the process of reducing emissions compared to other countries that depend on coal.
“It is not enough to write on paper and make law to become a reality”, says Patrícia Iglecias, CEO of Cetesb. “The important thing is to put the reality of the facts in today and go for what can effectively be complied with. The worst thing is the law that didn’t catch on. Sometimes it doesn’t catch on because it doesn’t have viability of accomplishment.”
The new climate goal in São Paulo, already set out in Decree 65,881, of 2021, by Doria, is the neutrality of emissions by 2050, that is, to ensure that the emitted greenhouse gases are at least offset by gas absorption, made by forests, for example. The goal is the same as for Brazil as a whole, as announced last week at COP26.
The decree, in general terms, only provides for São Paulo’s adhesion to the UN’s Race to Zero campaign. Details of action plans and intermediate goals, however, have not yet been published.
São Paulo’s emissions come mainly from the energy sector, which includes the burning of fuel. Included in this, therefore, are industry, electricity generation and transport — an activity with the greatest weight in the numbers of São Paulo.
“The diesel transport sector is the biggest ‘villain’ in our energy sector,” says Trani. The fuel, the most used in the country, is intended mainly for cargo transportation.
“This sector is in the wake of changes that we are going to have to work hard on, such as replacing energy inputs,” says the undersecretary, referring to biodiesel, a fuel that, since it is made from plants and not petroleum, is considered neutral in emissions.
According to Trani, in addition to presenting alternative energy and cargo transport options, such as railroads and waterways, the state government should also increase its focus on vehicle inspection. “In Brazil, the vehicle fleet is old. The old trucks have to be replaced by new ones,” stated the undersecretary. “It is an issue that we will have to face in several ways.”
In addition to cargo transport, passenger transport also has a large share in the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. In the capital, for example, gasoline vehicles are one of the main villains, says Felipe Barcellos, a researcher at Iema (Institute of Energy and Environment).
For 2021, with part of the movement of people returning to pre-pandemic levels, emissions related to this slice of the energy sector are expected to grow again. In large part, it is up to the municipalities to take action on the issue, but state support is important, says Barcellos.
He praises the capital’s proposal to reduce emissions from transport. One of the goals is to reach 50% of municipal buses with zero emissions by 2028 — the goal is to reach 100% by 2038.
Despite the ambitious goals, smaller and closer goals have already started to be broken in the city. For 2021, 2,620 electric buses were scheduled to run in São Paulo, according to Iema. But the current reality is a fleet of only 219 vehicles.
“This delay makes the snowball bigger”, says Barcellos. “You changing buses little by little is easier than changing them all at once.”
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