“We predict that 2024 will be an even warmer year as it begins with the El Niño phenomenon, which is currently strengthening and will peak later this year,” NASA’s chief climatologist said.
July 2023 will likely be the warmest on record for “hundreds, if not thousands of years” on planet Earth, NASA’s chief climatologist estimated Thursday.
Several heat records have already been broken in July, according to tools from the European Union and the University of Maine in the US, which combine data from stations on Earth and from satellites to create models that allow preliminary estimates to be made.
Although the two instruments have some differences from each other, the trend of rising temperatures is unmistakable and will likely be reflected in the US space agency’s monthly reports that will be released later, Gavin Schmidt, the US space agency’s chief climatologist, told reporters.
The day before Wednesday, the European Copernicus observatory predicted that this year’s July will be the warmest worldwide since measurements began, after the June that already broke every record.
“We are seeing unprecedented changes around the world,” Mr. Schmidt said.
“Heat waves in the US, in Europe, in China are breaking records,” he continued.
And these phenomena cannot be attributed only to the El Niño phenomenon, which “just started”.
El Niño is a cyclical climate phenomenon, whose source is in the Pacific Ocean, and leads to an increase in global temperatures, droughts in some parts of the world and torrential rains in others.
Although El Niño plays a small role in the current observations, “we’ve been seeing sea surface temperature records being broken even beyond the tropics for many months now,” according to Mr. Schmidt.
“And we predict this will continue,” the climatologist added, “as we continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”
Current trends increase the likelihood that 2023 will be the warmest year on record. This probability is “50-50”, according to Gavin Schmidt’s calculations, but other scientists consider it to be as high as 80%, he clarified.
“We predict that 2024 will be an even warmer year as it begins with the El Niño phenomenon, which is currently strengthening and will peak at the end of this year,” Mr Schmidt added.
Source: Skai
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