By Antonis Anzoletou

Tayyip Erdogan is a powerful leader. No one doubts that he has the political capital to proceed with a normalization of Greek-Turkish relations if he so desires. The point is that no one can know what is really on his mind. After many years, a road map entered Vilnius. Will it be followed? The Turkish president was the central figure of the NATO summit mainly with the “yes” he said to Sweden’s accession to Alliance. Of course, it was accompanied by Joe Biden’s commitment to the supply of F-16s. The Turkish president will take the aircraft regardless of whether what he claimed, that he has never used them against Greece, is completely untrue.

The vision of the “Blue Homeland” cannot change so suddenly. It represents a very large part of Turkey’s political world whom their leader does not want to disappoint. Ankara is far from entering the “straight road” because it is clear that it does not want to. However, the Greek side must insist on building new ways of understanding with its neighbors always within the framework of International Law. And it is clear from the attitude of the prime minister that this will do the four years that started.

It is a fact that Greek-Turkish may not be the main issue on his agenda at the moment Erdogan. Apart from the problems in the economy, he has to solve many issues with the USA, with Russia and the Arab world. However, it cannot cut off Athens, as it has been proven that in the wider region a “geopolitical chain” binds all the issues. The positions of the two countries are very far apart. Nevertheless, it is worth making another concerted effort, as Greece has a strategic choice to try to resolve the differences. The Greek side has made it clear that the only issue to be resolved is the delimitation of the continental shelf and EEZ in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. The question that arises is what will be done with the 12 nautical miles. There is a Turkish casus belli that Ankara is not going to back down from. If there is no agreement on this issue how could a co-pledge on maritime zones proceed?

At USA have concluded that the permanent stable ally in the region is Greece. That is why they have decided to give the F-35s, putting the country in a small block of states that have these advanced fighter aircraft. And once that happens, the balance changes with Erdogan already starting to feel at a disadvantage. Mainly for the regime he will leave behind after he has promised that he is serving his last term as the country’s president.

The “bargain” that has begun has also included the resumption of accession negotiations with the EU, with the first stop being yesterday’s meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Brussels. Referring to Greek-Turkish relations, George Gerapetritis pointed out that the day after the Vilnius Summit, Greece and Turkey will prepare the next steps of cooperation. Greece is willing, he stressed, to build on the positive climate, but there needs to be a similar response. Certainly the dialogue is expected to be long.