2023 is the hottest year on record, and 2024 is expected to surpass it
The world is exceeding the key warming limit at a rate that worries scientists, according to a BBC analysis.
About a third of the days in 2023, the average global temperature was at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.
Staying below this index in the long term is widely seen as critical to avoiding the damaging effects of climate change.
2023 the hottest year on record
The BBC article notes that 2023 is the hottest year on record, while 2024 is expected to surpass it. “It’s a sign that we’re reaching levels we’ve never reached before,” Dr Melissa Lazenby, from the University of Sussex, told the BBC.
When political leaders gathered in Paris in December 2015, they signed an agreement to keep the long-term rise in global temperatures this century below 2 degrees Celsius and to make every effort to keep it below 1.5 Celsius degrees.
The agreed limits refer to the difference between average global temperatures now and the pre-industrial period, between 1850 and 1900 – before the widespread use of fossil fuels.
According to the BBC, exceeding the limits will not happen from day to day but over time with an average of 20 or 30 years. This long-term average warming currently ranges from about 1.1C to 1.2C. But the more often 1.5 C is breached for single days, the closer we get to it being breached in the long term.
The first time this happened in modern times was for a few days in December 2015, when politicians were signing the agreement on the 1.5 C limit. Since then, the limit has been breached repeatedly, usually only for short periods.
The BBC’s analysis of data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that, up to 2 October, around 86 days in 2023 were more than 1.5C warmer than the pre-industrial average. That surpasses 2016’s record well before the end of the year.
There is some uncertainty as to the exact number of days that have exceeded the 1.5 C threshold because the numbers reflect a global average that may come with small data deviations. But the margin by which 2023 has already surpassed 2016 figures gives confidence that the record has already been broken.
“The fact that we are reaching this 1.5C anomaly every day, and for a longer number of days, is worrying,” Dr Lazenby said.
An important factor in increasing these temperature anomalies is the occurrence of El Niño.
These conditions help pump heat from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. This may explain why 2023 is the first year in which the 1.5C anomaly was recorded between June and October – when combined with long-term warming from fossil fuel burning.
Options available to reduce emissions
In March, the UN urged countries to step up climate action, stressing that effective options to reduce emissions are now available, from renewable energy sources to electric vehicles.
“It’s not just about achieving an end goal of net zero by 2050, but how we get there,” said Professor Hawkins.
“The IPCC (the UN climate body) says clearly that we need to halve emissions during this decade and then get to net zero. It’s not just about getting to net zero at some point, it’s about the path to get there.”
And as this year’s extreme weather events – from heatwaves in Europe to extreme rainfall in Libya – have shown, the effects of climate change increase with every fraction of a degree of warming.
Source: Skai
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