The probability of wildfires that devastate huge areas, such as those recorded in Australia in 2019 and in the Pantanal of South America in 2020, will gradually increase throughout the century. The alert is given by the UN and the environmental studies center GRID-Arendal in a report released this Wednesday (23).
From California to the Arctic, images of massive fires devouring forests and dwellings have become commonplace. According to the UN and GRID-Arendal report, this is just the beginning of a phenomenon that is expected to get worse over the next few decades.
Natural, accidental or man-made, these catastrophes are not caused directly by global warming, but usually due to increasingly intense and prolonged droughts, the report says. The data collected in the document involve only the largest fires, which used to happen once every hundred years.
The UN and the environmental studies center GRID-Arendal warn that regardless of the reduction in the average temperature increase to +2°C compared to the pre-industrial era – the main objective of the Paris Agreement – ​​the number of catastrophic fires will increase between 9% and 14% by 2030, between 20% and 33% by 2050 and between 31% and 52% by 2100.
“Even if the most ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are met, the planet will experience a dramatic increase in the frequency of conditions that favor extreme fires,” the report states.
With the new weather conditions, the unusual events “will slightly increase their probability”, explained one of the authors of the report, Andrew Sullivan, from the Australian agency CSIRO, at a press conference. The document does not address the increase in all wildfires, regardless of category, but “less extreme episodes are likely to increase in the same way,” he said.
Fire in the Pantanal: an emblematic case
The case of the Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, located between Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, is emblematic, explains the study. The region had suffered a severe drought since 2019 and the exceptional fires happened the following year. By August 2021 almost four million hectares had been burned.
Currently, South America is the scene of a huge fire, in the province of Corrientes, in the northeast of Argentina. Since mid-January, around 800,000 hectares of vegetation have been destroyed, resulting in high losses for the agricultural sector and enormous damage to the environment.
“Forest fires and climate change feed each other,” the report highlights. Soils are degraded, CO emissionstwo temporarily skyrocket and forests stop fulfilling their carbon capture mission.
The authors insist that governments’ response is often to spend money unnecessarily. In addition, the report points out that the value of the damage caused by fires is higher than the investments to fight it. That’s why experts advocate that this imbalance be corrected by investing in prevention: reducing activities that can start fires, better managing dead vegetation on the ground and protecting homes.
Danger to the planet and humanity
Even without considering the worsening of the situation, fires already represent a danger to the life of the planet and to people, with smoke inhalation, soil degradation and water pollution and the destruction of the habitats of several species. The report also recalls the worsening of global warming with the destruction of forests, crucial to absorb the carbon emitted.
However, if eliminating the risk of fires is impossible, experts insist on the need to reduce them. One of the solutions would be to improve the management of fuels – or any material that could potentially catch fire.
The cost of putting out fires is much higher than previous investments to limit damage. “We have to minimize fire risks with greater preparedness: investing more in risk reduction, working with local communities, reinforcing global commitments against climate change,” summarized Inger Andersen, director-general of the United Nations Program for the Environment.
with AFP
