Climate change is already causing damage to the health, food, economy and infrastructure of cities. The impacts are observed in all regions of the planet, which is on average 1.1ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era.
The ripple effects are gathered in the new IPCC report (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), released this Monday (28).
Prepared by 270 scientists, the study reviewed 34,000 scientific articles and points out that the profound changes caused by the increase in global temperature are already underway.
Based on climate models, the report also makes projections of scenarios on the increase in risks according to temperature and climate adaptation actions.
“It is unequivocal that climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health,” the report says. Since the panel’s last assessment in 2014, advances in climate science have increased the degree of certainty about attributing extreme events and their damage to global warming.
“The volume of information that we have today has increased a lot, as well as the degree of certainty about the attribution of risks and damages to natural and social systems to climate change”, says Jean Ometto, a researcher at Inpe (National Institute for Space Research ) and one of the authors of the IPCC report.
“The impacts are happening earlier than expected. Certain impacts that were predicted for 2050 in the previous report, in this one it is listed as impacts that are already observed, are already starting to happen”, highlights Ometto. “This also stems from the increase in information; still, it’s surprising.”
“This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, biodiversity and people and integrates the natural, social and economic sciences more strongly than previous IPCC assessments,” said Hoesung Lee, chair of the climate panel.
Among the socio-economic impacts currently observed is the drop in agricultural productivity. While it has increased globally, that growth has been slowed by climate change, according to the report. The negative impacts occurred mainly in mid and low latitude regions. However, there are positive impacts at high latitudes.
“Who will benefit from climate change? The Nordic countries. Russia, Sweden, Iceland, Canada. They could become agricultural powers in 30 years. Because the soil has a lot of organic material, precipitation will increase in these places, the period for the harvest. This is already starting to happen”, says USP physicist Paulo Artaxo, a member of the IPCC.
A negative impact in one region can be positive for another, explains Artaxo. “The decrease in rainfall in the Brazilian Northeast is something negative, but in a region where agriculture is not viable, this can be beneficial, as it reduces the leaching of nutrients from the soil”, he exemplifies.
The report also states that about half of the world’s population already faces water shortages for part of the year as a result of both climatic and non-climatic factors. The current scenario exposes millions of people to food insecurity and water scarcity, with greater impacts on communities in Africa, Asia, South and Central America, small islands and the Arctic.
Sudden losses in food production also cause malnutrition, especially among indigenous people, small farmers and low-income people. Impacts are greatest on children, the elderly and pregnant women.
Acute food insecurity and malnutrition related to floods and droughts have increased in Africa and South and Central America. “Climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate risks interact with high vulnerability,” the study states.
According to the climate panel, in all regions of the world there are already population displacements driven by climate and extreme events. Forced migration is disproportionately higher on small islands.
The IPCC also points out that climatic extremes impacted the duration, severity or frequency of violent conflicts, although it notes that the statistical association is weak and that climatic factors are not dominant for the occurrence of episodes of violence.
According to the report, animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, are emerging in new areas. Risks of water and foodborne diseases have increased regionally from climate-sensitive aquatic pathogens and toxic substances from harmful freshwater cyanobacteria.
“Although diarrheal diseases have declined globally, higher temperatures, increased rainfall and flooding have increased their occurrence, including cholera and other gastrointestinal infections,” the study said.
“Increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust and aeroallergens has been linked to climate-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory problems,” the report highlights, noting further that health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as floods.
In regions with a higher occurrence of extreme weather events — such as floods, extreme droughts or cyclones — it is also possible to identify the increase in challenges with the mental health of the population, associated, for example, with trauma due to disasters and the loss of communities. and their cultures. Projections indicate that anxiety and stress are likely to increase in scenarios of increased global warming, particularly among young and old.
In addition to pointing out the socio-economic impacts of the climate crisis and the groups most vulnerable to it, the IPCC report presents projections of risk scenarios, which vary according to global temperature and also according to the preparation of climate adaptation policies.
With investments in health and proactive adaptation —which anticipates climate scenarios— it would be possible to reduce climate-related health risks from high to medium in a scenario of a temperature increase of up to 2ºC, for example.
The study highlights a new avoidable climate risk: that of maladaptation. “An example is the action of building a wall to prepare against floods. Then a higher flood comes, the wall collapses and generates even more problems”, says Jean Ometto.
“Climate adaptation needs to be planned across the board, integrating different sectors, to generate resilient development”, he points out.
So far, progress on adaptation has been uneven and there are growing gaps between the measures taken and what is needed to address rising risks, according to the report. Gaps are greatest among low-income populations.
“The IPCC report is an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
