THE July of 2024 was somewhat less warm than the corresponding month of 2023, however, this data is not at all reassuring: according to the climate change observatory at the European Institute Copernicusit is now “increasingly likely” that 2024 will be the year with the highest temperatures on global record.

The streak of 13 consecutive monthly surface heat records “has come to an end, but by a hair’s breadth,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Climate Change Service (C3S) at the Copernicus Institute.

During the past month, marked by record heat in Greece and Japanwhile at Morocco the mercury topped 48 degrees Celsius causing 21 deaths in 24 hours, the average temperature on the planet’s surface was 16.91 degrees Celsius, in other words 0.04 degrees Celsius from the previous record, in July 2023, according to the monthly newsletter of the Copernicus C3S.

The heat was particularly felt in the western US and Canada, most of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and eastern Antarctica, while Europe experienced its second warmest July since 2010.

Globally, last month’s temperature was 1.48°C above the normal level of the 1850-1900 period – the pre-industrial era, before humanity began mass emissions of gases which cause it greenhouse effect.

It remained just below the symbolic limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, which was exceeded every month for a year.

However, the July of the current year is the second warmest ever recordedthe service underlines.

The overall picture “hasn’t changed: our climate continues to warm”, Ms Burgess stressed. “The devastating effects of climate change began well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach zero,” in climate neutrality.

“The world is going to get too hot,” Celeste Saulo, the vice-president of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said with concern yesterday.

The past month has been anything but free of phenomena believed to be due to the devastating effects of climate change.

Heat waves hit central Europe and the Mediterranean. Unprecedented floods swept Pakistan and China. Hurricanes like Beryl hit the Caribbean and the US. Deadly landslides hit the Indian state of Kerala. Giant wildfires have ravaged forested areas in California.

In addition, it broke the record for the highest average global temperature ever recorded for two consecutive days in July (22nd, 23rd).

And the oceans, which absorb 90% of the excess heat due to human activities, continue to overheat as well. The mean sea surface temperature in July was 20.88°C, the second highest of any July on record, just 0.01°C short of the all-time record set in July 2023, after 15 consecutive months that were broken record.

This remains a concern, although a further decline can be expected as the El Niño climate phenomenon, which increases ocean temperatures, comes to an end.

Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, where El Niño is particularly felt, have begun to cool, which “indicates that La Niña is developing,” the opposite of El Niño, which generally lowers the temperature of the planet.

Despite this development, experts predict that 2024 will break the record of 2023 and become the warmest year on record.

As of January, the average global temperature is already 0.27°C warmer than the corresponding period in 2023, C3S points out. A large reduction would be required by the end of the year for 2024 to finish with an average temperature lower than that of 2023.

Which has “rarely happened” since measurements began, making it “increasingly likely that 2024 will be the warmest year on record,” the agency concluded.