Heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the 21st century, with southern countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain most at risk, according to a new study.

Cold kills more people in Europe than heat, and some have argued that climate change will benefit society by reducing these deaths. However, the study, published in the Lancet Public Health, found that as temperatures rise and the heat-vulnerable population ages, the number of victims will gradually increase.

Climate change

If the global temperature rises by an average of 3 or 4 degrees Celsius, the researchers concluded, the increase in heat deaths will far exceed those from the cold.

The researchers said the results suggest climate change could pose “unprecedented challenges” to public health systems, particularly during heatwaves.

“Many more heat-related deaths are expected as the climate warms and populations age, while cold-related deaths decline only slightly.”said David García-León of the European Commission’s Joint Research Center, co-author of the study.

Up to 129,000 heat deaths per year with a 3C temperature rise

From an average of 44,000 heat deaths a year in Europe today, the number could jump to 129,000 with a temperature rise of three degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

Meanwhile, the annual death toll from cold and heat in Europe could rise from 407,000 people today to 450,000 by 2100, even if world leaders meet their goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the study.

The research comes as heatwaves sweep across Europe. Its results challenge arguments from climate deniers that global warming is good for society because fewer people will die from the cold.

Even in Europe, the coolest inhabited continent, the lives lost from the intense heat will outweigh those saved from the milder cold, the study found. Countries across Asia, Africa, Oceania and the Americas are burning to the brim with even deadlier temperatures.

“This research is a stark reminder of the number of lives we are putting at risk if we fail to act quickly enough on climate change,” said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at health research organization Wellcome who was not involved in the research.

The projected tripling of heat deaths in Europe “isn’t the whole picture,” she says, citing studies linking extreme temperatures to miscarriages and worsening mental health.

“And then there are the indirect impacts: We’ve already seen how extreme heat events can destroy crops, vital infrastructure, cause devastating fires and hurt the economy – all of which will have a negative impact on our lives.”

The risk is greater for the countries of the European South

The researchers modeled data in 854 cities to estimate deaths from high and low temperatures across the continent. They found that the heat would kill more people in all parts of Europe, but that the biggest burden would fall on southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, as well as parts of France.

They predict that deaths from uncomfortably high temperatures will increase by 13.5% if the global average temperature rises by three degrees Celsius, and that most victims will be over 85 years old.

Gary Konstantinoudis, an epidemiologist from the MRC’s Center for Environment and Health, who was not involved in the research, said the study was of high quality and provided valuable insights, but warned that predicting temperature-related deaths was complex and would always contain doubt.

The suggestions of scientists

The researchers recommend that governments consider policies to reduce the number of deaths, such as investing in hospitals, creating action plans and insulating buildings. They pointed out that the projected increase in deaths is due to changes in Europe’s population structure and climate.

“If we are to avoid reaching the worst-case scenario, it is fundamental to tackle the root of the problem, greenhouse gas emissionssaid Elisa Gallo, an epidemiologist at ISGlobal, who has studied heat-related mortality in Europe.

The researchers concluded that adaptation efforts should focus on areas with high unemployment, poverty, structural economic changes, migration and aging populations that are less able to adapt to climate change disasters and also hit hardest by rising deaths. due to heat.

With information from the Guardian