If we examine the change in the number of births after 1990 by major age groups we will find that while all of them decreased significantly (>30%), those coming from women aged 40 and over births quintupled by “weighing” 7 times more (1.4% of the total in the early 1990s, 8-9% in 2023-24). In the same period these from women aged 30-39 almost doubled and those from 20-29 and <20 years collapsed. These are some of the first conclusions mentioned in the recent digital bulletin of the Institute for Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM) on the subject: "Fewer and fewer children at an increasingly older age: births at the age of 40 and over and their contribution to the indicators fertility". The author of the article is the professor at the University of Thessaly and director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM) Vyronas Kotzamanis.

But why the “explosion” of births after 39 years? How much does the fertility of women aged 40-49 “weight” in the annual indicators today and 30 years ago (indices that barely exceed 1.3 children/woman)? what is the participation of the fertility of the 40-49 years in the final number of children born at the end of their reproductive cycle (at the age of 50) by the women of successive generations?

The answers to these questions, according to Mr. Kotzamani, are clear. The shift in childbearing age to ever older ages is the main cause of this boom, although, he says, both the increase in the 40+ population in the reproductive age population and advances in assisted fertility techniques have played a role in the last decade. and the recourse to them of a whole and greater number of couples. Regarding the participation of these births in the annual fertility indicators, although increasing, it is limited. Also limited is their participation in the final number of children born at the age of 50 by women born in 1951, 1961 and 1981: if the fertility rate of 40+ was zero, the 1000 women born in 1951 would have 25 children less (2023 instead of 2048), those born in 1961 39 fewer (1850 instead of 1889) and those born in 1981, 95 fewer (1410 instead of 1505).

The advances in assisted fertility techniques and the expanded access to them, says Mr. Kotzamanis, are not going to lead in the next two decades to a significant increase in births from women aged 40 and over, as the number of these women, in the absence of positive immigration, will decrease significantly: from 795 thousand in 2022 to 500 thousand in 2042. Births by women who are in the last decade of their reproductive cycle will, however, make a limited contribution to the increase in the final fertility of the generations, i.e. the number of of children who will bring into the world on average those born after 1981. The author of the article also notes that Greece is included, based on both the analyzes of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies and those of foreign research institutions, among those countries that , in the 1970-75 generations have: j) the biggest “fertility gap” between the number of children they desire and the one they will have (French women will have 5% fewer children than they desire, while we will 20% less) and ii) the greater difference between the percentage of women who wish to have at least one child and the percentage of those who will remain childless, with the result that the childlessness rate in these generations approaches 23% in Greece against 15% in France. In his opinion, the above-mentioned differences reflect the different policies between the two countries, policies that had the result in France that all the post-war generations up to and including those of 1980 had a little more than two children, in contrast to our country where, all the post-1960 generations had less than two, and the younger ones much less (only 1.5 children/woman born in 1981)….

The improvement of the fertility rates and births (72 thousand in 2023) is therefore unattainable in his opinion if an extremely favorable environment for creating a family and obtaining the desired number of children is not created in our country, which will allow younger couples to bring into the world the number of children they desire. This will progressively lead to a reduction in the particularly high childlessness rates of the younger generations, a slowdown in the increase in their average childbearing age, and an increase in the chances of those who have a first child to have a second, then a third, and so on. Speaking to the Athenian-Macedonian News Agency, Mr. Kotzamanis emphasizes: “If we do not create this favorable environment, the births in the next two decades will fluctuate around 68-72 thousand per year and given that the deaths will be around 130 thousand, the scale (the natural balance) will be negative by 60 thousand every year. If, on the contrary, we create it, births will naturally not return to the levels of the previous decade (92 thousand/year on average in 2011-20). However, they could exceed 80 thousand. The “profit” seems small, but over a period of 25 years it reduces the negative natural balance by 200 thousand and gives 200 thousand additional children who, growing up, will be added to the future productive and reproductive population age of our country”.