Almost everyone agrees, in closed-door meetings, that the first ballot boxes will not be able to form a government.
By Antonis Anzoletos
Paper and pencil have been taken by the party staffs by making reductions of the percentages they take in polls in simple analog conditions. Almost everyone agrees, in closed-door meetings, that the first ballot boxes will not be able to form a government.
There are four obstacles:
– The high turnout required by this electoral system by favoring only co-operative governments.
– The goal of ND is autonomy.
– The cooperation between ND and SYRIZA has been excluded by both “big ones”.
– Nikos Androulakis has drawn a red line with both the government and the official opposition.
In the last PULSE poll, held on behalf of SKAI from 6-8 June (with reduction on the valid ones), the percentage of parties outside the Parliament amounts to 14.5%. 85.5% of the respondents are therefore represented in Parliament. Based on this fact and the number of 300 deputies, ND in conditions of simple proportional representation with the 33.5% that it recorded would have 118 deputies. SYRIZA (25%) 88 representatives in Parliament and then PASOK (14%) 49 deputies. KKE (5.5%) 19, Hellenic Solution (4.5%) 16, MERA25 (3.5%) 10 deputies.
These numbers do not leave much room for combinations. A possible cooperation between ND and PASOK would give a government of cooperation with a total of 167 deputies. Such a thing, however, is not favored by the statements so far of both the Prime Minister and Nikos Androulakis. SYRIZA, even if it received the “yes” from PASOK and MERA25, would gather 147 seats. With PASOK alone, it has 137 deputies. And from the moment that Alexis Tsipras has burned the scenarios about a minority government, the enhanced analogy that follows is one way. It is recalled that the Constitution provides, in the event that autonomy is not achieved, to give exploratory orders to the first three powers. Forming a government requires either 151 votes or at least 120 “yes” to 239 MPs present.
The next election will be held according to the electoral system voted in January 2020. If the first party receives more than or equal to 25% of the valid ballots, then it gets a bonus of 20 seats, while the remaining 280 are distributed proportionally among the eligible seats. parties. From 25%, for every 0.5%, the first party gets an additional one seat seat bonus, while the maximum of 50 seats gets it if its percentage is at 40%. For the second electoral contest, it is estimated that the first party with a percentage of 37% – 38% will be able to obtain a majority of 151 deputies since the percentages of parties outside Parliament range from 8% -10%. It goes without saying that if the unrepresented vote is higher, the percentage for autonomy falls even more.
