What it shows is that Ankara is still counting on the specific aircraft despite Erdogan’s narratives that he has alternatives
By Antonis Anzoletou
The US Senate amendment that didn’t get the green light, the US midterm elections and the perpetual game of Erdogan with Greece, Washington, the European Union, Putin and the war in Ukraine are the pieces of a puzzle that the Turkish president has scattered on the horizon and is looking for a way to put them together. Or as he typically said on Tuesday describing the borders of his heart, “three continents and seven seasons”.
It is a fact that for the moment the amendment of the American Senate, which sets strict conditions on Turkey for the upgrade of the F-16, will not be included in the Senate’s version of the defense budget (NDAA). Was it a first win for Ankara? It could be considered that she keeps her hopes intact. What is demonstrated, however, is that he is still counting on the specific aircraft despite Erdogan’s narratives that he has alternatives and can turn to France, Great Britain, Sweden, Russia, China, etc. The Turkish president, despite what he says, does not stop to look towards the West and after Prague the information states that he will receive Emmanuel Macron in Ankara. After all, they have never stopped demanding more and more rights in the old continent. It is recalled that Mevlut Cavusoglu from Strasbourg stated that Turks living in Europe should obtain citizenship and register as voters.
What happened in the US capital is evaluated step by step as follows: The chairman of the Defense Affairs Committee drew up a text, which includes only the amendments on which there were no disagreements. The Republican co-chairs of the Senate Foreign Relations and Defense Committees expressed reservations. Nevertheless, the amendment can be included in the final text of the NDAA that will be adopted by both houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) as it is still in the version adopted by the House of Representatives. This is the main reason that sources on the Greek side emphasize that the negotiation will continue after the mid-term elections that will take place on November 8. And this is ultimately where the whole game is played.
Senator Bob Menendez hold in his hands the “keys” of the Turkish aircraft. He is Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the US Senate and has the right to “veto” any decision. He was last elected Senator in 2018 and given that his term is six years, he is not in danger of being outside the Capitol for the next two crucial years. Forecasters want the Republicans to have a better chance of regaining the majority in the House of Representatives (435 seats), while the Democrats seem to have the lead to keep their seats in the Senate. 35 out of a total of 100 Senators will change or seek re-election. What will be the composition of the deputies and the members of the Senate in the new talks that will start, probably in December, will decide the final turn of things.
In Ankara they believe that the mediating role they have assumed between Russia and Ukraine will influence the developments. Turkey, however, even if it finally succeeds in getting the F-16s, will not have them before 2028, as it will have to wait to enter the production line. The important thing for Greece is that by then it will have significantly strengthened its fleet, as it will have all Rafales (by 2024), 83 fully upgraded F-16 Vipers (by 2017) and if the planning goes ahead it will be on the threshold of the F-35 acquisition.
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