DW: What to expect, and what not to expect, from Olaf Soltz’s visit to Athens

The last visit of a German chancellor – then she was the chancellor Angela Merkel – took place exactly one year ago. Today, Mr Olaf Solz he is the most powerful politician in Germany. This is just one of many changes that have taken place over the past twelve months. The itinerary of the visit has also changed: It used to be almost routine to combine a stay in Greece with a subsequent visit to Turkey. The fact that it is different this time has a symbolic as well as an essential political dimension. In the past, mediations between Athens and Ankara were often part of German leaders’ missions to the region. Today, there is no German mediation on the horizon, which is mainly due to Turkey. The Turks have not been able to build a relationship of trust with the Solz government. Ankara accuses Berlin of bias in Greek-Turkish. In relevant statements by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, a nostalgia for Mrs. Merkel is evident.

There is no meeting between the Greek prime minister and a foreign leader in which Turkey does not play an important role. This time both sides wish to downplay the Turkey issue. Here we observe a parallel in the communication between the Greek prime minister and the German chancellor. Soltz’s representative summarized this communication tactic as follows. “We always make it clear that we do not consider threats and unfriendly statements towards neighbors to be correct, but at the same time – and this is the central message of dealing with provocations gently – ‘we should not talk too much about every sentence that is said.’

Berlin’s position is clear in favor of Greek sovereignty in the Aegean

Of course, Berlin is seeing Ankara’s rhetorical escalation against Greece – and it is not at all pleased. The Solz government has repeatedly expressed its displeasure on various occasions, and – in any case – more often than in the past. Berlin’s stance in favor of Greek sovereignty over the eastern Aegean islands, which Ankara openly disputes, is clear. The disapproval of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, with which Ankara attacks Greek sovereign rights over large parts of the eastern Aegean, is also clear.

Berlin’s strategy in the disputed Greek-Turkish issues can be characterized as dynamic and adaptable. The German ambassador in Athens described this adaptability as follows: “The more threatening the rhetoric from the East and the more openly the Turkish leadership questions international law and Greek sovereignty, the clearer is its public rejection of these positions. Berlin.”

Such exhortations by Germany to Erdogan are received with satisfaction in Greece. Unlike in previous years, there seems to be no shadow over Olaf Solz’s impending visit to Athens. On the contrary, according to a Greek newspaper comment, a new wind is blowing in Greek-German relations. The Greek prime minister himself declared that difficult relations with Germany are a thing of the past. Listening to this, one could think that we are at a turning point in bilateral relations as well, a break with the past, as Solz had announced about the country’s defense policy after the start of the war in Ukraine.

Soltz is not expected to differ from Analena Burbok

But let’s stay realistic. The desired harmony cannot hide the fact that there are – to put it diplomatically – serious outstanding issues in bilateral relations. They were put on the table in front of the television cameras by Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias at the end of July during the visit of German Foreign Minister Analena Burbock: This is the issue of German reparations for crimes committed during the Second World War and also for the supply of modern German submarines to Turkey, which Athens wants to block.

It would be surprising if Olaf Solz approached these matters differently than Mrs Burbok did three months ago by rejecting the Greek demands. It would also be surprising if the Greek host spoiled the image of harmony between Berlin and Athens by publicly insisting on the known Greek positions. Both sides are interested in a successful visit. For Mitsotakis, successful foreign policy has long been an important argument in the ongoing election campaign. Solz seeks harmony with Mitsotakis to distract from criticism that Berlin is isolated in Europe. In the end, everyone wants – and can – be satisfied. For strained Greek-German relations, this is an important step – a step in the right direction.

*Dr. Ronald Mainardus is a political analyst and commentator and Principal Researcher of ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he was director of the Greek editorial office of Deutsche Welle.

DW – Ronald Mainardus

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