The second part of the big Pulse poll was presented today by SKAI’s main news bulletin with Kosioni Co.
According to the research on a sample of 1,205 citizens with the right to vote, the New Democracy has a clear lead of 7.5 points over him SYRIZA. The ruling party gathers a percentage of 33.5% in the reduction of the valid ones, compared to 26% gathered by SYRIZA. They are followed by PASOK with 11%, KKE with 6%, Hellenic Solution with 4% and marginally below 3% MeRA25, with 2.5%.
In the second part of the Pulse poll, SKAI presents a thorough analysis with all the scenarios that may appear in both the first and second elections, even if no government emerges after the first election process.
On the first Sunday, the elections will be held using the simple proportional system. If no government is formed, a new date will be set for second elections, which will then be held under the enhanced proportional system.
Both in the first and in the second case, the number of parties that will secure their entry into the Parliament will play a decisive-regulating role. The more parties that enter the Parliament, the greater the percentage that is required for the first party to gather in order to ensure self-reliance and form a government.
The scenarios for the first Sunday with simple analog
On the first Sunday, the elections will be held using the simple proportional system. Namely, the first party will not receive the “bonus” of seats, provided for in the enhanced. This means that all parties will secure their seats proportionally, based on their percentage.
In this case, therefore, the more parties enter the Parliament, the “smaller the pie” becomes for everyone.
The first scenario envisages the entry of five parties into the Parliament. According to this, New Democracy secures 125 seats, SYRIZA 97, PASOK 41, KKE 22 and Hellenic Solution 15.
Simple analogy with 5 parties in the Parliament
How can a government with five parties in Parliament and simple proportionality emerge? The main scenarios are as follows:
1) Cooperation between ND and PASOK. Together they gather 166 seats.
2) Cooperation of SYRIZA, PASOK, KKE. The three parties gather 160 seats.
3) Cooperation of SYRIZA, PASOK, Hellenic Solution. Together they gather 153 seats.
4) Cooperation between SYRIZA, PASOK, KKE and Hellenic Solution. Together they gather 175 seats.
5) There is also the scenario of ND cooperation with SYRIZA, which does exist, but has minimal chances. In any case, the two parties, if they cooperate, gather 222 seats.
Simple analogy with 6 parties in the Parliament
The second scenario for the first Sunday of the elections foresees the entry of six parties into the Parliament. Here the facts change to a sufficient extent.
How can there be a government with six parties in the Parliament and with simple proportionality. The scenarios are as follows:
1) Cooperation between ND and PASOK. The two parties gather 160 seats.
2) Cooperation of SYRIZA, PASOK, KKE. The three parties gather 154 seats.
3) Cooperation between SYRIZA, PASOK, Hellenic Solution, MeRA25. They gather 158 seats.
4) Cooperation of ND, KKE, Hellenic Solution. They gather 157 seats.
5) Cooperation between ND, SYRIZA, with minimal chances as well. They gather 215 seats.
Simple analogy with 7 parties in the Parliament
The third scenario for the simple proportional representation foresees the entry of 7 parties into the Parliament. Here we have significant upheavals, as SYRIZA, PASOK and Hellenic Solution do not secure a majority and the addition of one more small party is required, i.e. the cooperation of four parties to form a government.
The scenarios in this case are as follows:
1) Cooperation of ND, PASOK with 156 seats in total.
2) Cooperation of SYRIZA, PASOK, KKE, MeRA25 with 159 seats in total.
3) Cooperation of SYRIZA, PASOK, KKE, Hellenic Solution with 164 seats in total.
4) Collaboration of ND, KKE, Hellenic Solution with 153 seats.
5) Cooperation ND, SYRIZA with 209 seats (the most unlikely scenario).
The scenarios for the second Sunday with enhanced analog
If no government is formed in any way after the first election, the country will be led to a second election, this time with the enhanced proportional system.
According to the percentages gathered by the parties based on the Pulse poll, the number of parties that will secure their entry into the Parliament is graded by the regulatory role it had in simple proportionality and becomes decisive for achieving the goal of self-reliance.
With the percentages given by the survey, New Democracy ensures independence with 151 seats.
However, if a sixth party also secures its entry into the Parliament, in this case MeRA25, then we have a total reversal, as the New Democracy does not ensure independence, gathering 148 seats.
In this case, the collaborations that can yield a government scheme are the following:
1) SW, PASOK with 182 seats
2) SYRIZA, PASOK, KKE, Hellenic Solution and MeRA25 with 152 seats
3) SW, SYRIZA (the unlikely scenario) with 228 seats.
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I have worked in the news industry for over 10 years. I have been an author at News Bulletin 247 for the past 2 years. I mostly cover politics news. I am a highly experienced and respected journalist. I have won numerous awards for my work.
