By Antonis Anzoletou

In politics, it is proven that heated reactions are not the right “guide” for the parties to proceed with a redesign of their strategies. From the very beginning, government officials estimated that a time gap of at least two months was needed from the accident in Tempi in order for the research companies to reach safe conclusions.

The recovery of lost ground and the tendency to gradually restore New Democracy to the “pre-Tempo” democratic percentages shows the Pulse poll carried out on behalf of SKAI.

In the intention to vote by recall on the valid n blue lineup it gains one unit compared to the previous measurement (April 4) and reaches 32%. 0.5% is lost by SYRIZA with the bar “opening” to 6.5 units. To retreat 0.5% also appears PASOK which falls short of the “psychological limit” of the double digit rate (9.5%).

They remain stable at 6% and 4% KKE and Greek solution respectively, raised by 1.5 units, MePA25 (5%) is reflected in the respondents’ preferences.

Party Greeks he prefers 3% (-0.5%) and everything shows that the decision of the Supreme Court on the descent of the formation or not will judge a lot. There are several estimates as to where the voters of the extreme right or some of the anti-systemic ones who ended up in this direction will go. Mainly, their diffusion into smaller almost adjacent formations is foreseen.

His rise Day25 it does not go unnoticed in Koumoundourou, as it seems that the party of Yanis Varoufakis, which appears – especially lately – as the genuine exponent of the anti-memorandum front, is putting pressure on SYRIZA from the Left.

The moment is critical for the PASOK, since in the last turn before the polls, Nikos Androulakis wants to be strengthened by the “mutual accusations” and the “war” of the two contenders for power, as the calm and programmatic voice and to get closer to the goal of 12%. It turns out, however, that things are not simple at all.

Many in Harilaou Trikoupis feel vindicated by the distance the party took from the possible association with Yanis Varoufakis in a progressive government. The risk of bank closures has reshaped the political landscape.

At New Democracy the repatriation of voters causes smiles in time. To this is added the “unmistakable index” of the victory performance, where the blue faction reopens the “scissors” at 30 points. It registers a percentage of 56% against 26% of SYRIZA. And because in the national elections the citizens also vote for the next prime minister, the picture has not changed.

To the question “after the elections, what would be better”, the assumption of the prime ministership by Kyriakos Mitsotakis reaches 38% (+2%), for Alexis Tsipras the record of the sample is recorded at 26% (+1%), while for Nikos Androulakis it falls to 9% (-2% ). It is clear that in the government camp they consider that their leader remains their “strong card” and for this reason they do not risk any deterioration that could be caused by a debate between the two contenders for power.

The gray zone

A “key” role in shaping the landscape before, but also after the simple proportional ballots, on May 21, have the voters who are placed in the so-called “gray zone”, the percentage of which is still moving at a high level (11% ), despite the fact that we have entered a pre-election period. According to the findings, 41% would prefer either an autonomous government or a collaboration with the ND core, compared to 30% who choose a SYRIZA government, autonomous or collaboration.

Of particular interest is the special question “to which option are you closest”, asked to those who declared their intention to vote undecided. 8% answered that they are moving towards New Democracy and 14% towards SYRIZA. They are followed by: 3% PASOK, 5% KKE, 3% Hellenic Solution, 8% Greek National Party. Pulse proceeded with two election result assessment scenarios.

With a proportional distribution of the so-called “grey zone”, which hypothetically includes a six-party Parliament and 8% “outside” the parliamentary seats, New Democracy reaches a percentage of 35.5% (116 seats) which is the first step towards achieving independence in the second ballot.

SYRIZA gathers 28.5% (93 seats), PASOK 11% (36 seats), KKE 7% (23 seats), Hellenic Solution 4.5% (14 seats), MeRA25 5.5% (18 seats).

What does this mean;

How only cooperation of Piraeus with Harilaou Trikoupi could give a majority of 152 seats. Surely with such a percentage, Kyriakos Mitsotakis will have “unlocked the door” to self-reliance in the second ballots and in Piraeus they would simply bypass the process of investigative orders counting down until the showdown of the enhanced proportional.

SYRIZA – PASOK – MeRA25 reach 147 MPs, confirming what Alexis Tsipras strongly supports, that apart from the moral issue, it is also mathematically extremely difficult for the “government of the defeated” to proceed.

In the second scenario, which includes the distribution of undecideds based on the above special question (about a more likely vote), the picture changes.

With 11.5% outside Parliament and with six parties getting the “ticket”, New Democracy gathers 33.5% (114 seats) and SYRIZA 28% (95 seats). They are followed by PASOK 10.5% (35 seats), KKE 7% (24 seats), Hellenic Solution 4.5% (15 seats), MERA25 5% (17 seats).

The difference between the first two falls by two points (5.5%) in relation to the previous work case and it is normal since Koumoundourou seems to prevail in the zone of undecideds. New Democracy and PASOK, i.e. the first and the second, do not manage to form a majority (149 seats) and the second ballots are a one-way street anyway.