By Antonis Anzoletou

The July 2019 elections took place in very different circumstances. The country had just emerged from the adventure of the memorandums and the Prespa Agreement, but also the deadly fires in Mati had “marked” his government SYRIZA. The deterioration was irreversible and the “gift shot” to the party of Alexis Tsipras is estimated to have been given by the middle class and the overtaxation it had suffered during those four years. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine with the accuracy crisis, the immigration issue in Evros and Tempi were the four events that marked the current government. There are losses, but the polls do not show any irreparable damage and the mood seems to be changing after the tragic train accident. Nevertheless, the road will be difficult until the elections. The narratives are different from the two “camps. From Piraeus they talk about recovery and from Koumoundourou they insist that May 21st will be a derby.

Four years ago the political map was “painted blue” in 49 regions with SYRIZA winning only 10 (Xanthi, Arta, West Athens, West Attica, II Piraeus, Achaia, Heraklion, Chania, Rethymno, Lasithi). Of the large geographical divisions of New Democracy he dominated all of Macedonia, Thessaly and the Dodecanese. Participation reached 57.78%. Not too high, not too low. In January 2015, 63.94% of registered voters went to the polls and in September of the same year, 56.16%. What does this mean; That when there is a distance from the previous polls, people’s interest is greater. The analysts who claim that they expect more citizens to go to the polls than four years ago are not wrong.

What is the problem facing the two contenders for power? The attacks they receive from their right and left respectively. Yanis Varoufakis, putting in his ranks former MPs and LAE officials, who left SYRIZA in August 2015, has formed an anti-memorial “umbrella” strengthening his radicalism. This puts pressure on SYRIZA, as from the blue faction they do not miss an opportunity to highlight all the negatives of the first seven months of 2015. They reinforce from Piraeus the narrative about the stability offered by single-party governments. THE Alexis Tsipras keeps a clear distance, stressing now that the tolerance vote cannot give a stable, long-term government.

New Democracy is receiving pressure from its right. The Hellenic Solution and smaller formations are in constant motion. Anti-systemic voters are expected to move outside the framework and drag another part into the “right-wing apartment building” after the exclusion of the party of the convicted Ilias Kasidiaris by the Areopagus. Not that there is anything in common with the far right, but elections activate many “communicating vessels” especially when it comes to protest voting. Northern Greece will play a key role in this whole equation. The Prespa Agreement had brought enough people who are closer to the extremes into the “embrace” of the New Democracy. Possibly they expected from him Kyriakos Mitsotakis to render the 2018 summer signings inactive, yet no such promise was ever made. This has shown how Kyriakos Velopoulos will exploit it.