The perilous journey by boat of thousands of refugees and migrants has been one of the biggest challenges for international politics for years. According to data from the European Border Protection Agency (Frontex) in 2023 more than 275,000 people dared this dangerous journey, hoping for a better life. Experience has shown that when winter ends and the sea becomes calmer again, the number of rotten ships increases, as do the dead. No one knows yet how this year will turn out. So far, the number of refugees and migrants entering the boats is probably less. But their paths are constantly changing and this makes predictions difficult.

Some days hundreds of people still arrive in Lampedusa, which has long been one of the main points of migration in the Mediterranean. But even more people from Africa are arriving today in El Hierro, the westernmost of the Canary Islands. Flows are also increasing in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, the pace of refugee movement across the central Mediterranean to Italy, which was the most popular route last year with 157,500 irregular crossings, according to Frontex, appears to be slowing. But what is the situation in Greece and Cyprus?

In mainland Greece via Gavdos

The situation in the refugee camps on the Greek islands has improved significantly compared to previous years. A total of around 10,000 migrants are currently living in camps in the eastern Aegean. There would be room for 13,600 people. However, a new migration route is causing a headache for the Greek government, but also for the EU as a whole: Smugglers are increasingly trying to bypass Greece and take migrants from Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt through the south of Crete to Italy. This has resulted in repeated rescues of people from overcrowded boats in the area, around 1,000 since the start of the year alone. Some boats reach Gavdos, a dot 20 nautical miles south of Crete, home to just 150 permanent residents. In Gavdos there is no accommodation for the migrants and the supply situation is also bad. Therefore, they are transferred to reception centers in Crete and from there to mainland Greece as soon as possible.

Cyprus: The refugee burden is enormous

In Cyprus the number of new arrivals is increasing dramatically. Since the beginning of the year approximately 4,000 migrants have arrived on the island (compared to just 78 recorded in the first quarter of the previous year). The burden on small Cyprus is enormous. No other EU country registers as many asylum applications in proportion to its population as Cyprus. Experts give various explanations for this sudden development and first of all the uncertainty caused in the region by the new war in the Gaza Strip, which has been going on for more than six months. Most of the new arrivals in Cyprus are Syrian refugees who previously lived in Lebanon.

Lebanon’s ambassador to Cyprus, Claude El Hayal, spoke of two million Syrians in her country, most of whom have entered illegally. EU financial aid to Lebanon amounts to “crumbs”. All this causes significant problems in Cyprus as well. The two refugee camps in the southern part of the island only have space for about 2,000 people. Those new comers are simply recorded and then left to fend for themselves. In Nicosia and other cities, living conditions are miserable, because the vast majority have neither housing nor work.

And Turks are asking for asylum

Until now, Turkey was mainly considered a transit country for refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. In a deal with the EU at the height of the migrant crisis in 2016, Ankara’s government pledged to better protect land and sea borders to Europe in return for billions of euros in aid. The Turkish coastguard has rounded up more refugees in the eastern Mediterranean and Aegean this year than at the start of 2023, stopping nearly 13,000 people from traveling in the first quarter. A year ago that number was around 7,500. Data on illegal border crossings from land do not exist. However, it is often the Turks themselves who flee to Europe.

In the country ranking of the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, Turkey was in third place, behind Syria and Afghanistan, with around 10,000 asylum applications in the first quarter. Possible reasons for this remarkable development are the economic situation and the increasingly authoritarian policies of President Erdogan. According to the organization Pro Asyl, most asylum seekers from Turkey are Kurds.

Meloni feels justified

In Italy, on the other hand, there are far fewer new arrivals today than a year ago. By the end of the first week of April, nearly 13,000 new arrivals by sea from Africa had been recorded, not even half as many as in the same period in 2023. Prime Minister Georgia Meloni attributes this to her own tougher approach and deals of the EU with countries on the other side of the Mediterranean such as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. From next month Rome also wants to send refugees by boat – up to 36,000 – directly to camps in non-EU Albania.

Meloni feels vindicated about her course, even if she is still a long way from her campaign promise to significantly reduce the number of refugees. Compared to the time before she took office in October 2022 the number is still significantly higher. Criticism was also leveled by private aid organizations that sail in the Mediterranean with their own ships. They accuse the government of Rome of massively obstructing the rescue of people in danger at sea. Several ships are currently in port at the behest of the authorities.

To the Canary Islands

The number of irregular migrants in Spain increased significantly in the first three months of 2024 and exceeded 16,000. This is four times the number compared to the same period last year. The Canary Islands received the greatest pressure. More than 13,000 refugees have arrived off the northwest coast of Africa after a perilous journey of hundreds of kilometers across the Atlantic. The development appears to be related to political developments and instability in Senegal. In the Canary Islands, a popular tourist destination and for many Germans, the discontent is swelling. Regional governor Fernando Clavijo called the situation “unsustainable” accusing the central government of inaction and indifference. Spain’s Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlasca promised help, although he made it clear that there are no “magical solutions”. No one knows how many drowned on the road from west Africa to the Canary Islands in the first quarter of 2024, perhaps thousands.