Reinforced but also split, it is estimated that the far right in Europe during the upcoming European elections on 9 June.

The finding can be seen oxymoron, however this is recorded in the opinion polls, which show an increase in the percentages of far-right parties throughout the EU, but also the split of the European Far-Right into two groups in the European Parliament.

The group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which includes, among others, the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Adelphi Party (FdI), the Law and Justice Party (PiS) of former Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo and the Spanish VOX, is considered less hard-line.

In contrast, the far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID) consists mainly of parties such as Marine Le Pen’s National Alarm (RN), Italy’s League of Matteo Salvini, Meloni’s government partner, and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), xenophobic parties.

MEPs from far-right parties look set to outnumber those of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) after next week’s election, according to polls, reflecting the turn of Europe to the right.

According to Politico’s prediction, the EPP would win 170 seats if the elections were held now.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) – the two main right-wing groups – look set to win a combined 144 seats.

There are also other parties in the mix, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to win 16 seats, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, which is in line for 10 seats. France’s Reconquest wins five seats, Poland’s Konfederacja six and Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin party Revival three.

According to these forecasts, the far-right occupy 184 seats.

How they will rally these post-election far-right MEPs are still up in the air.

The French Marine Le Pen is “courting” the Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni to form a far-right super-group in parliament and become one of Europe’s leading political families.

The National Rally is predicted to become the leading national party in the ID group, while Meloni’s party looks set to become the largest national party in the ECR.

Meloni has stated that she is open to cooperate with any party of the Right, but has also received a proposal to work with the EPP of von der Leyen. Just last week, Alternative for Germany was expelled from ID.

The pro-Ukraine ECR members contested the idea of ​​Orban’s Fidesz joining their group. Others, such as Belgium’s New Flemish Alliance, have already questioned the Hungarian party’s participation in the ECR.

The ID and ECR groups are even now far from a monolithic bloc, with members often voting against the majority – underscoring that groups whose member parties are defined by national interests and sovereignty cannot be expected to vote together on every issue .