Until a few months ago the Kaya Callaswho resigned as Estonia’s prime minister, was a top contender for the NATO leadership to replace Jens Stoltenberg — but rumors about her ties to Russia have significantly reduced her chances for such a position.

Powerful NATO member states, several of which belong to the EU, agreed that with the war in Ukraine it was no longer possible for them to remain marginalized in terms of assuming the unnamed positions of the Union. However, many felt that giving the top security post to a leading Baltic figure was a very strong message to Russian President Putin.

Another unknown factor is the upcoming US presidential election – and therefore who will be able to best manage Donald Trump, should he return to the White House.

Callas didn’t seem fazed at all and backed Mark Rutte as the next head of NATO. However, observers believe that her nonchalant reaction may have been part of a wider deal, which paved the way for the former Estonian prime minister to become the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, a position she was nominated for in June.

Callas, 47, was one of the first EU leaders to warn against Putin’s expansionist plans, further stressing to her colleagues that they should not fall into the “trap” of believing that good trade relations with Moscow could prevent crisis in which Europe found itself with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“This choice shows that Callas represents the prevailing view of EU governments,” said Merili Argiakas of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) think tank in Tallinn, Estonia.

What Callas has to show, as well as her intuition, appear to be seen as important assets in the EU’s drive to take more drastic measures against the Russian threat – there are even thoughts of a return to conscription.

Kalla’s priorities in foreign policy

Several experts told DW that Callas is the right choice at the right time for foreign policy, because over the next five years the EU will have to focus on how to strengthen its defense against Russia.

As the prime minister of Estonia, a very small country that until 1991 was part of the Soviet Union, but also as the daughter of a woman exiled to Siberia, Kallas is able to fully understand what could happen should Ukraine lose the war with Russia or be forced to surrender part of its territory.

Her top priority as head of European diplomacy will be to ensure that Europeans are fully prepared to prevent a possible Russian advance in the future.

The war in Ukraine has exposed many of Europe’s vulnerabilities – such as limited ammunition production. Callas has proposed joint EU borrowing to finance the expansion of the Union’s defense capabilities. Despite the fact that French President Macron supports the idea, Callas is likely to find it difficult to convince more fiscally disciplined countries, such as Germany.

At the same time, many are worried that disputes may arise between EU member states, but also that with Callas’ plans for Russia, she could steal the spotlight from the next head of NATO, Mark Rutte.

“In the case of a military crisis, it is important who gives orders to whom and how the real hierarchy works. This is NATO from a military point of view,” Kallas clarified in March. “But strengthening the defense industry is something the EU also has a say in.”

The biggest challenge for Callas will be the formulation of foreign policy in other areas, as for example in relations with Iran, China and the Middle East.

No specific foreign policy?

Christy Reich, deputy director of the ICDS think tank, said that Callas will evaluate relations with China and Iran based on the ties those countries have with Moscow.

“Although it is possible that issues will arise with China, I do not think that Callas will formulate a strongly specific opinion about Iran,” says Raik. “But it will all start with the fact that Iran is now working closely with Russia and has an authoritarian regime.” As Reich adds, Callas will seek to promote the formation of a multilateral world order based on commonly accepted rules: “She comes from a small state, so it is natural that she puts a lot of emphasis on a world order with rules, where international agreements are respected and the unwritten rules are respected.”

Others, however, believe that while this approach may work in terms of the threat posed by Russia to the smaller Baltic states, it could not have the desired results when applied to issues such as the Middle East, for example. “Kallas has not taken a personal stand on foreign policy issues other than Russia,” adds Marylee Argiakas of ICDS. “In any case, the overall stance of the EU will be decisive in major foreign policy issues.”

A “feminist” foreign policy?

Finally, it is also open whether Callas will follow a “feminist” foreign policy.

Even among devotees of feminist theory, there is disagreement about whether a feminist foreign policy simply encourages the inclusion of women in positions of power, fights for their rights through diplomacy, and promotes the channeling of more resources to these ends, or whether, on the other hand, it goes further, clearly prioritizing human protection over national security.

Ann Townes, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, explains that many feminists reject the idea that “there is an inherent opposition between a feminist foreign policy and security policy” – adding that “Kallas is one of them.”

Edited by: Giorgos Passas