Countdown to the result of the ballot box in the crucial elections of Brandenburg, the state that has more than two million inhabitants and practically encompasses Berlin. With a heavy East German tradition but also with a clear political color after the Fall of the Wall. From 1994 until today, it was the pre-eminent “red” stronghold of the Social Democrats, but something that can be overturned by today’s elections.

In all the latest opinion polls, the far-right Alternative for Germany leads, albeit marginally stable, with a difference from the Social Democrats that varies from one to three points, followed by the Christian Democrats and the Sara Wagenknecht Alliance, with the Greens and the Liberals as well as on the Left to prepare, and here, as in Thuringia and Saxony, for another massacre, which in practice erases them from the electoral map of these states. However, no party here wants to co-govern with the AfD.

The main issue that is expected to decide this confrontation is immigration, followed by peace, as a project and claim, with the war in Ukraine as a background.

Hans-Christoph Berd’s AfD here shouts “Germany to the Germans” and calls for “fences” on the border with Poland. Local Social Democrat Prime Minister Nitmar Vojtke, a moderate, emphasizes the integration of immigrants, but benefits from the government’s tough immigration policy, as shown in opinion polls. Currently co-governs with the Greens and the Christian Democrats.

“Fate elections”

In any case, the face of Chancellor Solz, who continues to register a historical nadir of popularity in opinion polls, is absent from Vojtke’s election campaign, although he has declared that he will be a candidate for chancellor in 2025 as well. Olaf Solz, for his part, will attend today the election results in Brandenburg, where he has his permanent residence, from New York, where he is for the Summit on the Future of the UN.

But his political future still remains open, because the “fatal elections” in eastern Germany, as the German press characterizes them, are now taking on the character of a “referendum”.

If the Far Right wins here as well, as happened in Thuringia, will he be able to continue his government role undisturbed for another year, as long as the opposition raises the issue of legalization at every opportunity?

And how many defeats can the three governing parties endure this year? European elections, Thuringia, Saxony and now Brandenburg? The polls in Brandenburg close at 18.00 German time and the first conclusions will come out already in the evening.