Who would be Trump’s “chosen” on the other side of the Atlantic? Who would be Donald Trump’s ideal interlocutor in Europe? There are many potential or unsolicited candidates, but not all of them have the same “agenda”. There is broad consensus around Mark Rutte, the new NATO Secretary General and former Dutch prime minister, who could certainly negotiate with a Republican president on security issues. But there are at least three other leading politicians in Europe who present themselves as like-minded and therefore more suitable interlocutors for Donald Trump. They are Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish President Andrzej Duda.

At least three NATO sources, who wished to remain anonymous, told Deutsche Welle that Rutte had developed a good relationship with Donald Trump during the Republican nominee’s first term and that this was one of the reasons he was chosen as the new chief. of the Atlantic Alliance.

As Camille Grand, a defense policy analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), points out, during Trump’s first term “Rutte was known to be able to attract the interest of the American president, but at the same time remain steadfast in his positions.” , both in bilateral contacts and in NATO summits.

A case in point was Rutte’s fire-fighting intervention in 2018, when Trump threatened that the US would “go our own way” after the Europeans refused to significantly increase their defense spending. The Dutch prime minister politely reminded that “thanks to Trump” defense spending is already increasing.

Wanted: The distribution of burdens in NATO

Ian Lesser, head of the German Marshall Fund’s (GMF) office in Brussels, believes that “if Trump wins, Rutte will best convey the message of appropriate burden-sharing within NATO,” seeking reassurances in return. Trump that the US will maintain an active role in the Atlantic Alliance and continue to financially support Ukraine.

It is recalled that Trump has previously threatened to cut economic aid to Kiev, encouraging Russia to “do whatever the hell it wants”, as he typically said. His former adviser, John Bolton, even believes that with Trump in the White House, it is possible for the US to leave NATO.

Rutte’s “competitor” for Trump’s favor will certainly be Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who in the summer met the former US president after a solitary “peace mission” with stops in Beijing, Kiev and Moscow. However, Susanna Weg, an analyst for Central European issues at GMF, attributes Orbán’s extroversion more to the Hungarian prime minister’s own interests and especially to his attempt to project himself as a leader with an international reach. “A Trump victory would also encourage Orbán to continue his authoritarian policies and undermine the credibility of the EU as a community of democratic countries,” points out Susanna Wegg.

Analysts estimate that Orbán’s policy against immigrants, but also against the LGBTQ+ community, has caused special sympathy for Trump. After all, his former adviser, Steve Bannon, said that the Hungarian prime minister was a “Trump before Trump”. As Orbán maintains a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and disagrees with the European “line” in support of Ukraine, some believe he could secure the Kremlin’s privileged access to the White House. However, observes Ian Lesser, Orbán may be a “like-minded” Trump, but Rutte would be a “strategic interlocutor”, who represents the entire Atlantic Alliance and would presumably be able to exert more influence.

Meloni’s ambitions for the future

In Italy, Antonio Giordano, a member of parliament for the ruling “Brothers of Italy” party, certainly excludes the role of Giorgia Meloni and tells the Financial Times that the country’s first female prime minister would be “a natural interlocutor” for Trump, “if he wants to.” to understand how it should behave in Europe”.

Meloni herself has not publicly expressed any preference ahead of the US election. According to Philip Simonelli, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations in Rome, the prime minister is “convincingly in favor of the Atlantic Alliance” and anyway “will try to act as a link between the extreme right wing of the European political scene and the new European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen, who is already moving to the right. Consequently, Meloni will try to derive the maximum benefit from the overall change of balances in the political scene”.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou