Early elections in Germany are not an easy task that works with automation. Even if elections are called immediately or as soon as possible, a reasonable preparation period of about two months is needed, if one takes into account the letter of the constitutional provisions.

In an interview on Sunday night on the first program of public television, Olaf Solz did not rule out the possibility of speeding up the vote of confidence even within December, if the competent electoral commission deems it feasible and if the official opposition agrees.

The official opposition through the head of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, is pushing for a vote of confidence even the day after tomorrow, Wednesday, but something that might seem rushed. A more likely scenario is seen as an intermediate solution from the chancellor’s initial proposal for a vote of confidence in mid-January and early elections in mid-March and the Christian Democrats’ proposal.

Rare post-war early elections

One of Germany’s post-war constants is the recourse to the polls at the end of every four years, offering security and stability to the political system. Only five times in total in post-war German history have chancellors sought a vote of confidence in the Bundestag.

On three occasions they did so to trigger early elections under the terms of the German Constitution: Willy Brandt in 1972, Helmut Kohl in 1982 and Gerhard Schroeder in 2005. In the other two cases the aim was simply to confirm parliamentary support: in 1982 Helmut Schmidt and in 2002 again Gerhard Schroeder.

Germany is again in such a situation. Regardless of whether early elections are held in March or earlier, in any case there are the necessary institutional barriers that are written into the German Constitution. This is why the (constitutionalist) President of the Republic Frank-Balter Steinmeier spoke only of a political and not a constitutional crisis, referring to the constitutional procedures. “Early elections do not mean the end of the world,” he said in his speech a few days ago.

What does article 68 of the Constitution provide for?

Because of the experience of unstable governments during the period of the Weimar Republic, the post-war German Constitution, the Bonn Basic Law does not provide for an automatic dissolution of parliament. According to Article 68 of the German Constitution, the chancellor can only ask the parliament for a vote of confidence. He may even link this request to a specific bill, but not necessarily.

In practice the constitutional ‘tools’ of Article 68 are activated when the chancellor wants to confirm that he has the confidence of the majority. The expediency of the chancellor is not checked, i.e. if he really wants to cause early elections or not.

If he fails to receive the confidence of the parliamentary majority, as is expected in the case of Olaf Solz, the next step is to activate the powers of the President. The President of the Republic should then proceed to dissolve the parliament within 21 days, according to article 68.

From the dissolution of the Parliament, 60 days pass before the elections (Article 39). As for the PtD, it has the discretion to decide not to dissolve the parliament, something that President Frank-Balter Steinmeier has already ruled out, in case Scholz does not get the majority, as everything seems to indicate.

The “constructive vote of no confidence”

Another constitutional possibility to name a new chancellor without an election would arise from Article 69 of the German Constitution. This is, of course, a possibility, which the leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, does not seem willing to take advantage of. The reason for the “constructive vote of confidence”.

Article 69 provides, in simple words, the possibility of a change of government and the appointment of a new chancellor without the mediation of elections. But in order to do this, the current chancellor will have to be overthrown through a motion of no confidence. At the same time, the parliamentary majority will have to propose and vote for a new chancellor. Such a majority does not seem to exist at the moment in the Bundestag, so the scenario of triggering the possibility of Article 69 seems slim.

Early elections and government formation

Once it is decided to dissolve parliament, after a chancellor fails to receive a vote of confidence, and if the German President gives his consent, early elections are called sixty days after the presidential “yes”.

The parties should in the meantime have drawn up lists of candidates in each individual state, and the states, regions and municipalities should practically organize the conduct of the elections, from the printing of envelopes and ballots to the proper establishment of polling centers and election representatives. It will be the first federal election to be held under the new electoral law, which limits the number of elected members to 630 in the federal parliament.

After the elections and the final result, the process of forming a government begins in Germany, which can take months, unlike other countries with a tradition of single-party governments, such as Greece. In 2021, it took 73 days for the formation of the three-party government of the “lighthouses” Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals (from the parties of the three parties that participated in it).

According to analysts, the most likely post-election cooperation scenario seems to be that of a “grand coalition” of Christian Democrats/Christian Socialists and Social Democrats. But “without Olaf Solz”, as leading officials of the Christian Union, such as Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Zender, declare.