Even without having officially assumed his duties, his every statement Donald Trump acquires special news value. It is therefore not surprising that the statements of the incoming American President on the situation in Syria dominated the headlines:

“No one knows who will rule in the end,” said Mr Trump at the first press conference after his victory in the November election. And he added: “I think it will be like Turkey.” A series of compliments to Turkey and its ambitious president followed. “He’s very clever, they’ve wanted it for thousands of years, and he’s succeeded,” he commented in his characteristic way.

Donald Trump says what many pundits are thinking, but with surprising directness. After the fall of dictator Assad and the defeat of his main external backers, Iran and Russia, the deck is reshuffled in Syria. At the forefront – in the literal sense of the term – are Turkey and Israel. A common feature of both, the lack of hesitation to use military force, in flagrant violation of the principles of international law.

A sign of the decline of the international order

The crisis in Syria is another example of the decline of the rules-based international order. In today’s age, what counts is military power. Attackers do not hesitate to challenge even internationally recognized borders. Revisionist forces claim that their violent actions are solely aimed at protecting their own populations.

However, Turkey’s and Israel’s ambitions for regional influence face a key obstacle: neither country belongs to the Arab world. In the minds of many people in the region, the two countries are associated with colonialism and occupation.

In the battle for the future of Syria, the Arab monarchies of the Gulf also play a role. Their conservative leaders want at all costs to prevent the creation of an Islamic caliphate in the Mediterranean. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are willing to provide billions for the reconstruction of Syria. At the same time, Turkish construction companies are already poised to reap great financial benefits.

Refugees are Europe’s priority

The Europeans will at the same time reach deep into their pockets to repair the damage of a war in which they did not participate. The same pattern will likely be repeated in neighboring Lebanon and then Gaza.

Refugees remain Europe’s priority. When European leaders talk about immigrants, the main topic is strategies to prevent them from entering Europe. As ten years ago, Turkey plays a decisive role now. Brussels is once again ready to reward Ankara handsomely to keep its borders closed to refugees.

The refugee issue is also at the center of the official Greek position on Syria. “Greece is at the forefront of the refugee issue,” Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said recently.

The role of Orthodoxy

At the same time, Kyriakos Mitsotakis characterized the Greeks as “natural guardians of the Greek-speaking and Arabic-speaking Orthodox”. Syria’s Christian community, though once numerous, has shrunk significantly in recent years. Many Orthodox are anxious about their future and ask for the support of Athens.

The support of Orthodoxy beyond national borders is a constant of Greek diplomacy. This issue also appears in the government’s official announcements. Little or nothing, however, is being heard from official lips about the implications of Turkey’s looming political dominance in Syria. Greek analysts discuss the possibility of a repetition of the so-called “Libyan scenario” as a nightmare for Hellenism.

It is about the possibility that a regime in Damascus, under the rule of Ankara, will sign an agreement with Turkey on the delimitation of maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean – ignoring existing international law. The “model” for such a move could be the Turkish-Libyan memorandum of 2019, which is still a thorn in Greek-Turkish relations.

For now, these concerns appear to be more theoretical in nature: Ankara has its hands full for the foreseeable future securing its interests on the ground. On the contrary, much more concrete is the alliance that Athens has formed in recent years, in which, in addition to Israel, Egypt and Cyprus, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates also participate. This alliance can be activated by Greece at any time, when it comes to defending its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean against Turkey.

Dr. Ronald Mainardus is a political analyst, commentator and principal researcher at ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he was director of the Greek editorial office of Deutsche Welle.