His supporters Zoran Milanovic they heard what they wanted on that Sunday morning in mid-December 2024: the current president of the EU member state and candidate in the upcoming elections for the Croatian head of state on Sunday (December 29, 2024) presented himself in his usual combative speech at the launch of the election campaign in the packed Kulturfabrik hall in the Croatian capital, Zagreb.

After the audience greeted Milanović with rapturous applause, he vehemently attacked Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and his government. He accused the prime minister of corruption and cronyism and called Plenkovic a “poodle” and “puppet of Brussels”, a yes-man who bows meekly to whatever the European Union decides – and pays no attention to Croatia’s national interests . The incumbent had only scorn for the other contenders for the presidency: he didn’t want to talk about them at all, Milanovich said, because “an eagle doesn’t chase flies.”

Milanovic’s confidence has its reasons: For weeks now, he has consistently led in all polls in the race for a second five-year term, most recently with the projected support of 39% of those polled. His closest rival, Dragan Primorac, the candidate of the ruling nationalist Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), has 23%. Ivana Kekin from the left-green party “Mozemo!” follows far behind. (“We can do it!”) and independent candidate Marija Raspudic with around 9% each.

Croatian Trumpism

“Milanović doesn’t have a program at all,” Zagreb-based political scientist and political analyst Zarko Puhovski tells DW, “he is the program.” What Milanovich expresses is “a kind of Trumpism,” Puchowski continues: “He presents himself as a man of clear words, clear ideas, who doesn’t mince his words. That’s what people like: strong men. This is what we see today in Hungary and the USA.”

Furthermore, the president has no interest in Croatian laws or state institutions. “He has violated the Constitution several times, he refuses to cooperate with the government and the parliament, he ignores the decisions of the Constitutional Court, whose judges he described as “annoying flies” and “a group of gangsters”.

Yes to Europe – but Croatia first

Politically, Milanović, who was a long-time leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and as such also headed the government from 2011 to 2016, cannot be categorized as either clearly left-wing or right-wing. Instead, he presents himself as a fearless fighter against the corruption that is consuming the state and the nepotism of the ruling HDZ – but at the same time he is indifferent to the central institutions of the Croatian state.

On the one hand, Milanovic emphasizes Croatia’s integration into the Western world and the EU – but on the other, he insists that Croatia’s interests must always come first. It emphasizes the roots of Croatian statehood in the anti-fascist struggle of Yugoslav partisans during World War II – but awards medals to Croatian soldiers who went into battle for Croatia’s independence from Yugoslavia in the 1990s with slogans of its Croatian fascists organization

“Ustasha”. Eligible for lefties and righties

This ambiguity allows Croats from very different political camps to vote for Milanović. While Primorac is seen as a mouthpiece for his political patron, HDZ chairman and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, the left sees Milanovic as the only serious challenger to the strong nationalist prime minister. The far right, on the other hand, values ​​his commitment to the good of the nation and his sovereignty over the EU.

At the same time, the president has little to say about Croatia’s domestic politics. It is the parliament and the government that decide. The head of state only has a say in certain intelligence matters and certain aspects of foreign policy—and as commander-in-chief of the military, the president is important in defense matters. The fact that the president is directly elected by the people in Croatia, unlike Germany, for example, gives the office special legitimacy.

Yes to NATO – No to war

On foreign policy, Milanovic wants to keep Croatia out of Russia’s war against Ukraine. “This is not our war,” he says, using an old adage: “When elephants fight, mice must stand aside.” Moreover, according to the president at an event in early 2023, Russia “cannot be defeated by conventional means.”

Milanovic does not question Croatia’s NATO membership – but rejects the active deployment of Croatian soldiers to the Ukraine war, even as part of a possible peacekeeping force. His opponent therefore tried to discredit him as “Putin’s man” and “paid by the Russians”. However, as he was unable to substantiate these claims, they fell on deaf ears without consequence.

An anti-model for Europe

Milanovic also insists on safeguarding national interests vis-à-vis the EU. While Prime Minister Plenkovic is seen as a trouble-free Europeanist who reverently follows Brussels policy lines, Milanovic demands greater independence. “We have to take care of ourselves, our politics cannot always be that of a submissive,” he said at a campaign event at Zagreb’s Culture Factory. Milanovic has long preached the need for money from Brussels – it is “our money”, he says, “we deserve it”.

The current president uses the same tone in relation to his neighbors in the Western Balkans. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, where Croats are one of the three constituent peoples along with Bosniaks and Serbs, he insists on strengthening Croat rights. At this point, there are almost no differences with the current Croatian government’s policy.

Milanovic’s attitude towards Serbia is not very different from that of his arch nemesis, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. However, with one important difference: Kosovo was “removed” from Serbia in violation of international law at the time, according to Milanovic – and Croatia was involved. This was a precedent, which is not particularly surprising given that Russia later did the same with Crimea.

If no candidate receives an absolute majority of the vote in the first round of Croatia’s presidential election on December 29, the top two candidates will face off in a second round 14 days later.

Edited by: Kostas Argyros