Eastern Mediterranean: What a comprehensive maritime zone solution means

By Stefanos Nikolaidis

The Prime Minister’s statement Kyriakou Mitsotakis at Parliament for her intention of Athens to call on joint meeting all of them coastal countries her Eastern Mediterranean, it’s not just a diplomatic announcement. She is one statement of strategic intentwhich aims to highlight Greece as a hub of understanding in a constantly explosive region.

“Greece has absolutely nothing to fear from sitting at the table with anyone“, the prime minister characteristically said, showing that the Athens seeks to get her initiative of movementsbefore others do.
It is, in fact, about diplomatic counterattack of a country that feels it already has the Cyrusthe stability and the institutional confidence to determine the agenda.

OR idea however they are not new. From the 2003when the Greece he had her Presidency her E.E.had been opened by dialogue for the need of one multilateral Mediterranean agreement in its context Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. Two decades later, the time is right more mature: the energy discoveriesh geopolitical fluidity and the pressure of USA for stability make her discussion for the marine zones not only diplomatically necessarybut also financially urgent.

New geopolitical mobility in the Eastern Mediterranean

OR Levant remains the more complex geopolitical field her area.

From the pending of marine zones until effects her climate crisisthe migratory and her illegal fishingthe absence of one institutional framework of cooperation has left room for confrontations, mutual suspicions and consolidation of unilateral movements.

Against this background, Athens attempts to convert one problem in opportunity.

The proposal, then, for multilateral meeting with participation Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey and Libya – and potentially other countries in the region – aims to open one wider dialogue which will include not only the “hard” boundary issuesbut also the “soft” fields of cooperation.

The Washington Doctrine and the Arrival of Kimberly Guilfoyle

OR imminent arrival of the new American ambassador in Athens, Kimberly Guilfoyleis expected to give new momentum.

OR Washington comes back with renewed doctrine: removal of obstacles that inhibit the economic activity of American interests. OR presence of energy giants like the Chevron and the ExxonMobil in the wider area already constitutes strong pressure lever in favor of her stability — and indirectly, in favor of Greek positions.

OR American politics not so interested in them legal details of delimitationsas far as to ensure the security framework and predictability which will allow companies to invest without geopolitical risks.

In this sense, the Mitsotakis proposal aligns with will her Washington to “close” the open accounts in the area.

5X5 and the bet of agreement

The Greek initiative proposes a multilateral scheme “5×5“, with 5 countries and 5 thematic sections:

• Delimitation of maritime zones
• Immigrant
• Civil protection
• Connectivity
• Environmental protection

The aim is twofold: on the one hand to open a institutional debate for the big issues (demarcations)on the other hand to build one lower intensity cooperation field (civil protection, environment, immigration), which can function as ““cushion” of trust.

Athens is actually trying to change the climate through it cooperation – a species diplomatic “triple” opposite to Turkish suspicion.

Angelos Syrigos: “The ideal solution to end the Turkish-Libyan memorandum”

“An attempt at a comprehensive solution in the Eastern Mediterranean with multilateral delimitation of maritime zones would be the ideal solution to definitively end the Turkish-Libyan memorandum“, points out the professor of International Law and ND MP, Angel Syrigos.

As he explains, the Turkish-Libyan memorandum it is illegalfalls into regions of Greek and Egyptian jurisdictionit is contrary to logic and the geographybut it remains on the tablebecause they invoke it so n Anchor as well as Tripoli.

OR only way to leave and typically, he says, it’s either complaint from the Libya – something unlikely due to fear of collision with her Turkey – either reference at Haguewhere of course the Egypt and, probably, the Turkey.

Therefore, a multilateral processaccording to Mr. Syrigos, would convert it problem in collective issue and would diplomatically offload it. In addition, it would create conditions for the annulment of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum de facto, without ruptures.

The professor reminds, in fact, that after 2003when the technology allowed demarcations at great depthsh Cyprus lead me agreements with her Egypt (2003)him Lebanon (2007) and the Israel (2010)while the Greece-Egypt agreement the 2020 marked her new era of boundaries at Southeast Mediterranean.

“Chevron’s presence in Libya and the Egyptian EEZ is already a catalyst and effectively cancels the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, as well as the doctrine of the Blue Home“, he emphasizes.

He adds that, since the USA get involved politically in region with target stability“iwe are talking about a radical change in our favor».

Konstantinos Filis: “The Greek dribble and low-intensity diplomacy”

The director of the Institute of International Affairs (IGA) and analyst of international issues of SKAI Konstantinos Philis estimates that the Greek proposal “it is moving in the right direction, but it will take time to pay off».

“We do not expect developments within weeks. Cyprus, Egypt and Libya must be placed first — so far only Turkey has reacted, as always with suspicion towards any Greek initiative“, he says.

For Mr. Fili, the key message it is political: n Athens presented as power of initiative and not as passive pressure receiver. The strategy is to form one field of agreement on issues “low politics“, as political protection or the environmentso as to be created positive atmosphere before them difficult conversations for delimitations.

“Athens’ dribble is that it seems willing to talk about everything, without getting bogged down in hard topics. At the same time, it sends the message to Washington that Greece operates within an institutional framework, in contrast to Trump’s approach, which promotes ad hoc arrangements according to American interests“, he explains.

He warns, however, that the project success will depend on whether he has the “approval» of USA and secondarily of her E.E.

“If the initiative is part of a wider normalization strategy, then it can pay off. Otherwise, it will remain an interesting exercise on paper».

The Greek chance before the game will be changed by others

In conclusionthe Mitsotakis proposal it’s something much more from a “diplomatic gesture of goodwill».

She is one prevention movement opposite one fluid geopolitical landscapewhere the strong players – like them USA – will sooner or later seek to define them rules of the game.

OR Athens tries, thus, to anticipate the developments, setting the frame. With strong economy, active role to the regional organizations and props in E.E.it can to propose solutions before they are imposed on her.

OR multilateral meetingif it does eventually go ahead, it might turn out to be the more ambitious diplomatic gamble her post-political Greece.

For the first time in decades, the country it does not react to developments — it causes them. And this, in an area where every word, every map and each measurement line acquire geopolitical weightis already one important victory.