Brazil, Belgium, Argentina and France arrive at the 2022 World Cup as the best teams of the moment and favorites to lift the cup. At least according to FIFA’s ranking.
Historical data reinforces the unpredictability of the tournament. Since its inception, the list has not exactly served as a good predictor. Until today, no team that occupied the first position on the eve of the World Cup managed to win the title.
Brazil will try to break this “curse” to reach the sixth championship in Qatar. The team returned to the top in March – after four and a half years – and remained there until the last update before the Cup, last month.
The apparent contradiction can be partially explained by the very dynamics of the Mundial as a short shot tournament. Injuries, suspensions, locker room and crowd crises are among the factors that could shorten the giants’ journey. In addition, of course, to the early direct confrontations.
The main application of the ranking is precisely in directing the draw. The score serves to define the top seeds and divide the teams into different levels, to avoid the formation of the so-called “groups of death”.
Even if they are classified according to the hierarchy, however, favorites can fall by the wayside in the round of 16. Belgium, for example, would face four-time champion Germany, owner of the best campaign in the European qualifiers.
On the other hand, history registers failures and setbacks that are difficult to justify from the perspective of official ranking.
France (2002), Spain (2014) and Germany (2018) starred in some of the biggest embarrassments of the World Cups. They arrived as champions and ranking leaders, but were eliminated in the first phase. The French and Germans still finished at the bottom of their respective groups.
In the first World Cup after the creation of the ranking, in 1994, Germany landed in first place. It was eliminated in the quarterfinals by Bulgaria of top scorer Stoichkov, sensation of that year.
In the other three editions (1998, 2006 and 2010), the leader was Brazil. In the first of them, the selection even reached the final, but lost the cup to the host France. Zidane and company had started the World Cup occupying 18th place in the ranking.
The home factor was also decisive for the biggest surprise in the recent history of the World Cups, considering the FIFA classification.
When hosting the World Cup in partnership with Japan, in 2002, South Korea occupied only 40th place on the list, but became the first – and until today only – Asian team to reach the semifinals.
In an unlikely campaign, marked by some refereeing controversies, the team led by midfielder Park Ji-Sung eliminated Italy and Spain in the knockout round.
That same year, the other semifinalist was Turkey, then 22nd in the ranking. Striker Hakan Sukur’s team finished the Cup in third place, after making life difficult for Brazil both in the first phase (2 to 1) and in the semifinals (1 to 0).
In finals, the biggest surprise was also the most recent, with Croatia’s runner-up four years ago.
Luka Modric’s team was 20th in the ranking and only fell in the decision, against France, after rankings suffered in the knockout stage (penalties against Denmark and Russia, and overtime victory over England).
Since its inception, the FIFA ranking has undergone some updates. The last change in methodology was adopted in August 2018, after the World Cup held in Russia.
The current model is based on adding or subtracting points for each match played by the national teams, whether in friendlies, qualifiers or other competitions.
“Points added or subtracted are partially determined by the relative strength of the two opponents, including the logical expectation that teams above should do better against teams below.” The importance of the game also comes into play.
Italy is the only world champion and the only team in the current top 10 that failed to qualify for this year’s Cup.
Uruguay is again the least ranked champion, occupying the 14th position in the ranking.
Automatically classified for being the host country, Qatar appears in 50th place. And the team with the lowest ranking is Ghana, in 61st place.
First and third placed, respectively, Brazil and Argentina arrive practically as intruders in a top ranking dominated by European teams, a reflection of continental dominance in recent decades.
The world champion trophy has been in the possession of teams from Europe since 2006 (Italy, Spain, Germany and France). This is the longest sequence in history without switching between continents.
Among the first placed in the ranking, Argentina is the one that evolved the most in the last cycle, under the command of coach Lionel Scaloni.
Messi’s team reached 12th place in October 2018. Now, it reaches the World Cup in third place, ahead of current champions France and boasting 36 unbeaten games.
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