Survey shows that placing a specialist in taking penalties at the end of the game does not work

If Sunday’s World Cup final becomes the third to go to penalties, coaches Didier Deschamps of France and Argentina’s Lionel Scaloni must avoid the temptation to launch a “penalty specialist” at the end of extension. This doesn’t usually work.

Data analyst Nielsen Gracenote analyzed the relatively recent trend and found that of the seven players who entered late in extra time at the World Cup or Euros to take a penalty all seven missed, with five of their teams losing in the penalty shootout.

This occurred at the 2006 World Cup when England manager Sven-Göran Eriksson decided that defender Jamie Carragher’s experience outweighed any potential technical flaws, but he was wrong.

The experience was repeated ten years later, at Euro 2016. It was seen three times at last year’s Euro and twice at the current World Cup.

It seems that the positive aspect of bringing in a skilful finisher, someone the manager feels can handle the pressure, is outweighed by the player not touching the ball for two hours or more, most of the time sitting down.

“There’s something known as a warm-up dip, which isn’t so much about injury prevention as the degree of warm-up you would do before a motor skill,” said Matt Miller-Dicks, senior professor of skill acquisition at the School of Sport. , Health and Exercise Science at the University of Portsmouth, told Reuters.

“There’s a review on this recently with the NBA and free throws where they found that where there was a set of double free throws, the success rate for the second shot was higher compared to the first, and then equally so. in the case of any triple throw. The success rate increases with each successive throw. This points to the fact that for a specific skill like a penalty kick, if you just come on as a substitute, you are less able to perform a motor skill with the same precision because he is less prepared.”

The seven that went wrong

Jamie carragherEngland v Portugal, 2006 World Cup Quarter Finals. England lost 3-1.

Carragher came on in the 119th minute for winger Aaron Lennon and took England’s fourth penalty after both teams had already lost two. Carragher needed to score to make it 2-2. His poor shot was easily saved by Ricardo, and Cristiano Ronaldo scored the ensuing penalty to send Portugal through.

Simone Zaza, Italy v Germany, Euro 2016, quarterfinals. Italy lost 6-5.

Zaza came on in the 121st minute replacing Giorgio Chiellini. Taking Italy’s second penalty after both teams scored the first, Zaza took around 15 short jumps before hitting the ball over the crossbar. There were nine penalties for each team before Germany’s victory.

RodriSpain v Switzerland, Euro 2020 quarterfinals. Spain won 3-1.

Rodri came on in the 119th minute for Pedri and took Spain’s third penalty after each team had missed one. Rodri fired to Yann Sommer’s left, but not far enough, and the goalkeeper saved.

However, Switzerland missed the third and fourth penalties, while Spain scored the next two goals to win 3-1.

Marcus rashfordEngland v Italy, Euro 2020 final. England lost 3-2.

Rashford came on with Jadon Sancho in the 120th minute, replacing Kyle Walker and Jordan Henderson. With the score 2-2 in the penalty shootout, but with Italy down one, England had the advantage. However, Rashford, after a timid run, hit the left post.

sanchoEngland v Italy, Euro 2020 final. England lost 3-2.

After Rashford’s failure, Italy scored to lead 3-2. Sancho hit Gianluigi Donnarumma’s left but within reach of the goalkeeper. Italy missed their fifth attempt, which left Bukayo Saka with a chance to retain the penalty shootout, but his shot was also saved and Italy were European champions.

Pablo Sarabia, Spain v Morocco, 2022 World Cup, Round of 16. Spain lost 3-0.

Sarabia replaced Nico Williams in the 118th minute and, although he was an option for the penalty shootout, he almost defined the game when he hit the right post with the last kick of extra time. Shortly afterwards, he took Spain’s first penalty, but it hit the other post.

Badr Benoun, Morocco v Spain, 2022 World Cup, Round of 16. Morocco won 3-0.

In the same penalty shootout, Benoun came on for Azzedine Ounahi in the 120th minute. He took the third penalty for Morocco as his side won 2-0 after Spain lost both. His weak shot was easily saved by Unai Simón. His disappointment was short-lived, however, as Sergio Busquets missed the third in three for Spain, leaving Achraf Hakimi to score to send Morocco through to the quarter-finals.