Brazilian has 28% fewer technician changes in 1st year with limit on layoffs

The clubs of the Serie A of the Brazilian Championship reduced by 28% the changes of technicians in the 2021 edition compared to the previous one. It was the first contest of the Nacional after the adoption of a rule to try to limit the dismissals of coaches.

Despite the decrease, the reality of the national elite is still far from being equal to the main centers of world football, according to the survey carried out by leaf with data from 19,800 matches from the last five seasons in 12 countries.

While Brazil registered 1.2 exchanges per club, this rate was 0.4 in Spain and 0.2 in England, for example.

The fall of Renato Gaúcho at Flamengo, after a loss to Palmeiras in the final of the Copa Libertadores, closed a list with 23 changes of coaches throughout the championship. In the previous edition of the competition, there were 32 substitutions in charge.

A contrast draws attention to the extremes of the leaderboard. With the exception of the team from Rio, the other five teams that were best placed in the Brazilian Nationals and qualified directly for the next Libertadores started and ended the tournament with the same coaches.

Last year, only three clubs had not changed coach during the competition (Atlético-MG, Ceará and Grêmio).

Highlights in this edition were the work of Cuca at Atlético-MG, national champion after 50 years, and Juan Pablo Vojvoda and Maurício Barbieri, responsible for the unprecedented places for Fortaleza and Red Bull Bragantino, respectively, in the international competition. Palmeiras and Corinthians also did not change commander.

At the other end, Chapecoense, relegated to last place, was the only team to change command on three occasions.

For statistical and standardization purposes among the leagues present in the survey, all professionals who completed at least three consecutive matches ahead of the teams were considered, in addition to those who started or ended the competitions occupying the position. Data are from the Transfermarkt website.

The rule that seeks to contain the famous dance of chairs in Brazilian football was confirmed by the CBF in March, after tight approval by the clubs council: 11 votes in favor and 9 against.

According to the rule, valid in the A, B and C series, each club can make only one dismissal without just cause during the championship. If a second coach is dismissed, the replacement must be an employee who has been employed for at least six months – such as a permanent assistant or a youth coach, for example.

Each commander can also resign only once if he still wants to take on another team in the competition. The text does not, however, provide for any limitations on terminations carried out in (or reported as) “mutual agreement” between board and coach.

In practice, the argument can be used as a loophole so that a dismissal is not computed within the limit, as noted by the president of the Brazilian Federation of Football Coaches (FBTF), José Mário Barros, known as Zé Mário.

“We approved the rule and we think that [a redução] it was once a reflection. Despite the fact that there were still many issues raised, sometimes by the coaches themselves, in the sense of saying that it was in common agreement to help the board or receive a quicker termination”, he assesses.

Experts consulted by leaf they say that it is not yet possible to confirm a correlation between the new rule and the lower number of exchanges. As the survey itself shows, there was only one replacement in 2017, before the new regulation.

For João Paulo Medina, former assistant of the Brazilian national team and founder of the University of Football, the longevity of coaches in teams with the best performance is due to good results, and not the other way around.

“I am in favor of the rule as a first step. But, to get to the root of the issue, I understand that exchanges will decrease as clubs truly have a sports project. Some have good management planning, and this has advanced, but they don’t have a sports project. We still see the ‘win is good, lost is bad’ on the basis of many decisions”, says Medina.

Researcher at the German University of Sport and author of a comprehensive study on the subject published in 2020, the master in sports management Matheus Galdino agrees with the assessment.

“The exchanges, mostly, are opinionated and speculative decisions. The clubs, in general, do not believe in processes, but in the delivery of temporary services”, he summarizes.

According to the survey, presented to the CBF last year, statistics collected since 2003 in Brazil reveal three preponderant aspects for the dismissal of coaches in the country. They are: the accumulation of points in sequential windows of four games played, the overestimated expectations at the beginning of competitions and the falls in knockout tournaments.

“It has been shown that a coach needs at least seven games to start, partially, to influence the results. At the same time, the average length of stay is 65 days, or between seven and ten games. That is, when the coach starts to surrender its influence, it is already under pressure”, explains Galdino.

According to the researcher, the risk of being fired is still 182% higher in the fourth game after an elimination in Libertadores. “The sequence is threatened by the knockout, which also depends on luck, while the regularity competition is the only one that you can actually plan”, he analyses.

Consultant Ivan Furegato, director of the Brazilian Association of Sport Management (Abragesp), recalls that the new rule, and especially a new culture, can also contribute to the clubs’ coffers.

“It creates an obligation, so to speak, to make less mistakes in signings. The board sends one or more coaches away and changes the squad depending on the preferences of each coach, but remains obligated to pay the contracts in full. This weighs heavily on the debts and in the legal part”, he points out.

Traditionally, many substitutions occurred in the final rounds, when the boards bet on renewal as a last breath in the fight against relegation. This year, there was a change in this pattern.

At the bottom of the table, the 2021 relegated (Grêmio, Bahia, Sport and Chapecoense) made eight changes together until the 29th round. Last year, the last four (Botafogo, Coritiba, Goiás and Vasco) had made 13 changes together until the 34th round.

Even with the reduction in 2021, the Brazilian still doesn’t compare to the main leagues in the world in this regard, with 1.2 coach per team.

With the same number of teams and the same game format, the Premier League registered only four changes, while the Spanish and Italian leagues had seven changes each in the last full season.

Clubs from Portugal replaced their coaches on 15 occasions in all (average of 0.8 per team), and those from Germany promoted 12 changes (0.7). In neighboring Argentina, the number was also considerably lower: 18 in total, or 0.7 per team.

The exception is Turkey. Last season, there were 37 changes in the first division of the country: an average of 1.8 per club.

“We always come back to the issue of the calendar. How are we going to evaluate the quality of the coach’s work? You’re going to evaluate the group’s management much more than the training. Because training, there’s hardly any. Practically it’s just games, recovery and conversation” , concludes Medina.