Predictions of the spread of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are vital to aviation safety, but to date they are not always accurate. A new study by researchers at the National Observatory of Athens uses wind data from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Aeolus mission and provides more accurate predictions of how ash will be dispersed after a volcanic eruption.

Volcanic ash released at the height of aircraft flight is a significant risk to aviation, as it can lead to temporary or permanent damage to the aircraft engine. Early warning systems can help reduce the impact on aviation by providing forecasts of areas of volcanic ash spread. The performance of these forecasts depends on the meteorological forecast and mainly the winds. However, wind profile measurements are mainly obtained from radios, aircraft and wind radars, which lack global coverage.

THE Greek research group ReACT of the Institute of Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens, led by the Institute’s director of research and member of the Aeolus mission science advisory board, Vassilis Amoiridisstudied the dispersion of volcanic ash following the eruption of Etna in March 2021. The volcanic plume extended over the eastern Mediterranean region.

As Mr. Amoiridis explains to APE-MPE, there is a lack of observations of three-dimensional wind fields to improve forecasts of volcanic ash transport, and the Aeolus satellite comes to fill this gap.

So, to study this particular eruption of the Etna volcano, researchers used data from ESA’s Aeolus satellite, which was launched in August 2018 and decommissioned just a month ago. This particular satellite was the first worldwide to observe wind profiles in the troposphere and down to the lower stratosphere, and in particular over regions where there are gaps in wind observations, i.e. over the oceans, the poles, the tropics, but also the volcanic regions of the world.

The research, published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, found that predictions of the location of the ash plume shifted significantly southward when the Aeolus data were incorporated, ultimately showing that the plume traveled far. faster towards the island of Antikythera than originally predicted.

The data was evaluated by the Geosciences and Climate Change Observatory PAGEA of the National Observatory of Athens, located in Antikythera and which has contributed more widely to the verification of the data recorded by Aeolus. The ReACT research team was also a member of the Aeolus mission’s science committee, overseeing the satellite’s performance throughout its lifetime. For this purpose, the research team has developed in collaboration with the Greek company Raymetrics a mobile reference system called Eve, which by utilizing laser remote sensing methods (lidar) contributed to the calibration of the satellite.

Moreover, at a recent ESA conference organized in Rhodes in collaboration with the National Observatory of Athens and Raymetrics to present the final results of the Aeolus space mission from research centers around the world, the ReACT team presented the exploitation of data from the Aeolus satellite and in another area, the prediction of desert dust transport in the atmosphere.

Mr. Amoiridis underlines, moreover, that highlighting the capabilities of Aeolus is important in view of the planning of the next satellite wind profiling mission “Aeolus 2”. The start of the mission is estimated in 2031 and within this framework two new satellites will be launched, in collaboration between ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUMETSAT.