Sidereal Messenger: After ISS, NASA wants transition to private space stations

NASA has formally announced plans, already speculated a few months ago, to maintain the International Space Station (ISS) until 2030. It’s basically an effort to buy time, as the agency bets on a transition from low-Earth orbit occupation to the private sector as soon as possible. from the next decade.

The largest international cooperation project in history, the orbital complex that brings together the US, Russia, Canada, Japan and European countries cost around US$ 150 billion. The first module was launched in 1998, and the station has been occupied non-stop (always with at least one Russian or American on board) since 2000.

More than two decades after the first expedition to the ISS, the global scenario is quite different. The US-Russia relationship is no longer what it was after the fall of the Soviet Union, and growing friction has already affected, albeit not significantly so far, space cooperation between the two countries.

Running on the outside, China would only launch its first astronauts into space in 2003, and it was last year that the Chinese space program began construction of its own space station, Tiangong, which should gain two more modules this year, but it is already considered operational and has maintained permanent occupation.

Extending ISS operations far beyond 2030 is impractical, also on the diplomatic side, but above all on the technical side. The modules are old, the onboard technology is outdated and, no matter how much maintenance is done, the day will come when it will be impossible to keep a safe crew on board.

Instead of betting on an ISS 2, NASA decided to spend its money with international partners on the return to the Moon. The Artemis program is starting to approach the time when we will see humans launched into deep space again, and the Japanese, Canadians and Europeans already are on board, looking forward to seeing their astronauts orbit the natural satellite, occupy a small lunar orbital complex, the Gateway, and even descend to the surface.

However, despite this lunar spectacle, it is strategically unacceptable for Americans to leave the manned occupation of low earth orbit as a Chinese exclusive. The solution? Encourage private entities to build their own stations.

It may seem unbelievable, but it worked for transporting cargo and astronauts to the ISS. Today, NASA abandoned its own spacecraft and rockets and decided to hire the service directly from companies such as SpaceX, Boeing and Orbital. The idea is to extend this process to the development of entire stations.

And the agency is putting money into it. Development contracts, worth US$550 million, were signed at the end of last year with three partner companies (Blue Origin, Nanoracks and Northrop Grumman), and a fourth (Axiom) has already been authorized to carry out private missions and install new modules on the ISS. Later, they can be decoupled to become a station of their own.

It is still uncertain whether the plan will work, and even more so whether it will be possible to make a smooth transition between the ISS and these new private complexes without it implying years of downtime in low Earth orbit.

It is worth remembering that NASA projects have a tradition of delaying, and operational intervals between them are common. The agency spent between 1975 and 1981 without the ability to send astronauts into space, in the transition between the Apollo program and the space shuttle. Three decades later, this happened again, between 2011 and 2020, in the transition between the space shuttles and the private capsules.

The reward, in case of success, is great. Without prejudice to its lunar exploration program (China, by the way, also has its own, which foresees manned landings on the natural satellite around 2030, which puts more pressure on the Americans), the US agency could have multiple destinations. for its astronauts in low earth orbit without having to pay for their maintenance alone. The companies that own the stations could have other private customers besides NASA.

This is already happening, to some extent, after the development of commercial crew programs. The Crew Dragon capsule, which SpaceX originally developed to meet state demand, now also performs 100% private missions (as was the case with Inspiration4 in 2021 and will be with Axiom-1 in 2022). Nasa has become just another customer (although by far the one that consumes the most), buying space flights as until the day before yesterday it only bought airline tickets.

On the other hand, don’t be surprised if we reach 2031 and China, following the traditional model of development and 100% state funding, is the only country with a functional station in low orbit. It is the contrast between a new model, and therefore uncertain, and a traditional one (and guaranteed, although possibly more expensive). Innovation, in this context, is synonymous with risk.

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