Even before the war, when the first package of sanctions against Moscow was announced as an attempt to deter Tropez, diamonds in Antwerp”. Shortly after, he deleted the post, deemed inelegant. The next day, Russia invaded Ukraine.
After three months, tourism in Europe shows signs that the high season of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, with a peak between July and August, could be the most virtuous of the last two years of the pandemic – but the absence of the Russians, as an effect of the war and four more packages of sanctions, will be felt.
Borrell’s reference to cities in Italy, France and Belgium gives the dimension of the stereotype of these tourists in Europe. Despite not being among the most numerous, Russians ranked seventh among those who spend the most on international travel, with €32 billion in 2019, before the health crisis.
As a result of the sanctions, air traffic between Russia and the EU has been suspended by both parties, ports are closed to Russian vessels, Russian banks have been disconnected from the financial system and restrictions on travel and goods affect more than 1,100 people and entities in the country.
The impact of the war on European tourism hits the eastern part of the continent the hardest. There are places that are less popular with international travelers due to their geographic proximity to the conflict — such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and Poland — and others that are more dependent on Russian travelers.
Among these are, according to the World Tourism Organization, Cyprus, Montenegro, Latvia, Finland, Estonia and Lithuania. Tourists from Vladimir Putin’s country represented at least 10% of the total before the pandemic in these places, but in Cyprus the rate reached 20%. In larger destinations, such as Spain, France and Italy, the percentage did not exceed 3%, but what counts is how the money is spent.
In 2019, Italy hosted almost 1.8 million Russians, responsible for 5.8 million nights – 2.6% of the total foreign presence, ten times less than the largest group, the Germans. In spending, however, they are in fourth place, behind only the Japanese, Chinese and Canadians. On average, every Russian spent €145 a day in Italy in 2018. In addition, more than 40% of stays in this group were registered in luxury hotels, according to the Italian statistical institute.
According to Michele Costabile, a professor at the Luiss University of Rome specializing in economic behavior, the impact will be concentrated on specific points in the luxury segment, such as the beaches of Portofino, Capri and Taormina. “Hotels, restaurants and resorts will feel the absence of Russians, who have great spending capacity. And Sardinia must be the Italian area that will suffer the most”, he says.
The island in the Mediterranean is one of the favorite destinations for Russians. There, at the start of the war, a €17 million mansion owned by the oligarch Alisher Usmanov on the famous Costa Smeralda was seized as part of the sanctions, as was his yacht. “As nouveau riche, this group seeks symbolic status in tourism. They like to show off, with things like a pyramid of sparkling wine glasses.”
The perception is similar in Spain, says Juan Gómez, head of market intelligence at ForwardKeys, an expert in analyzing air travel data. “They choose specific cities and have their own habits, such as not traveling on commercial routes, but with private means, such as boats and jets.”
Since Easter, Venice has seen the volume of international travelers approaching the pre-pandemic level, but guide Angela Popovici estimates that she is working only 20% of what she used to do by 2019. She has specialized in serving clients in Russian for six years, she notes the lack of those who live in the country.
“Now that Russia is blocked for travel, to get to Europe, citizens who have a valid visa have to stop over in Turkey or the United Arab Emirates. As the trip has become longer and much more expensive, there are not many,” he says. “They also need to bring cash or cards from other countries, due to the blockade of Russian banks.”
According to an analysis by ForwardKeys, the absence of Russians in Europe does not mean that they have stopped traveling for leisure. But, since the war, they began to prioritize destinations where they were less “cancelled”, in Asia and the Middle East, such as Sri Lanka, Maldives, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
A report released this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos assesses that the Ukrainian War represents a new obstacle to the recovery of global tourism. In addition to travel restrictions, the document highlights logistical disruptions, rising energy prices and problems on air routes, such as those between Europe and Asia, that need to bypass Russian airspace.
Despite this and the absence of the Chinese, who are still dealing with the restrictions of the pandemic, experts predict that the summer season in Europe will recover much of the breath lost in the last two years. The last few weeks have given good signs and, in addition to domestic demand (77% of Europeans plan to travel between April and September), there is a return of tourists from the Americas and Australia.
“The key change is stability in travel rules and restrictions, which allows travelers to make plans in advance. Last year, at this time, many changes were still being made, and vaccination campaigns were starting,” says Gómez, from ForwardKeys.
The expectation, he said, is that tourism in the Mediterranean will approach pre-pandemic levels, with some routes exceeding 2019 figures, such as the flow between the US and Greece. “There’s been pent-up demand for the last two years, and that’s going to overcome the negative impact of war and inflation.”
