The campaign for the legislative election in France began this Monday (30) with attacks by members of the Emmanuel Macron government on the left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The election that defines the 577 deputies of the National Assembly takes place in two rounds on the 12th and 19th.
In a message to the candidates of the Juntos coalition, which supports the newly reelected president, Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne called a “forced marriage” the opposing ticket made up of the France Insubmissa party (third place in the first presidential round) in association with socialists, communists and greens.
For her, like Marine Le Pen’s far-right, the far-left holds a radicalism of “slogans and attitudes”, while the ruling coalition represents “a radicalism of actions and results”. Borne is also running for a chair for the Renaissance, the new name for Macron’s centrist legend.
The aggressive tone also appeared in the words of the government spokeswoman, Olivia Grégoire. In an interview with the newspaper Le Parisien, she accused the left-wing alliance of being a merely electoral agreement, not based on convictions. Mélenchon would be seeking, therefore, not a majority to take the country forward, but a minority to block it. “The positions are ahead of the French,” said Grégoire, who is also seeking a seat in the legislature.
Called the Nova União Popular Ecológica e Social (Nupes), the left-wing coalition, when launching its campaign on Monday, sought to reinforce the discourse of change. “Our task is to reflect and illuminate the paths of the future, facing dozens of problems that no one has faced”, said Mélenchon, who decided not to seek re-election in the Assembly.
The difference between the tones shows, according to observers, the defensive phase that Macron is going through at the beginning of his second government, after being re-elected in April. Voting intention polls show a fierce contest in the first round between his coalition and the left-wing alliance, although in the second round, the projection of the number of seats puts the government at an advantage to obtain a legislative majority.
In addition, the new cabinet has been dealing with negative repercussions since it was announced on the 20th. This is despite the president’s efforts to gather names with green and social policy credentials, as a way of showing that he has heard the frustrations expressed by the high abstention. and for the support of the electorate to the extremes.
Solidarity portfolio holder Damien Abad, for example, was accused of rape by two women – he denies it. And the confusion ahead of Saturday’s Champions League final in the Paris region forced the ministers of Sport and Interior to respond to criticism of poor organization and excesses by the police – they blamed Liverpool’s English fans.
“There is a sense of tension in Macron’s party, which helps explain the aggressive reactions of Grégoire and Borne,” says Victor Poirier, director of publications at the Montaigne Institute, a public policy think tank in Paris. “If they have to depend on someone to get an absolute majority in the Assembly, it could lead to a series of questions about reforms the government intends to pass.”
To guarantee an absolute majority, a coalition must elect at least 289 deputies. The number would allow the government to advance its agenda without having to negotiate with other political forces. In 2017, the pro-Macron alliance won 350 seats, with 308 for its party alone.
According to polling institute Ipsos, this election is much more open than it was five years ago. The absolute majority for the centrist was not, three weeks before the first round, a certainty, but the projections released on the 23rd indicate an advantage for Macron.
Despite the balance between the presidential alliance (28% of voting intentions in the first round) and the left (27%), the government would still win the majority of seats, with a number between 290 and 330 deputies. The block led by Mélenchon would have somewhere between 165 and 195 seats.
The difference between the voting intentions and the projection of seats in the Assembly is explained by the electoral rules. The system is not proportional and favors the big parties. To win in one of the 577 districts, a candidate must attract, in the first round, more than half of the valid votes and at least 25% of the total electorate. When there is no winner, the second round is held between candidates who have received at least 12.5% of the total votes.
Furthermore, historically, the winner of the presidential election tends to attract more voters to the polls, while the losers tend to suffer a demobilization on the part of supporters. Voting in France is not mandatory, and abstention, according to Ipsos, could exceed 50% on the 12th.
In the case of Macron’s coalition, the central position on the political spectrum also tends to favor him. According to Poirier, the president should benefit from the right, attracting votes from the Republicans — whose coalition won 130 seats in 2017 and is now projected to win between 35 and 65 — and from the left. “Part of the moderate left considers Mélenchon too extreme and can vote for candidates supported by the president.”
At the other extreme, Le Pen did not heed the calls of Eric Zemmour, fourth in the presidential election, to consolidate an ultra-right alliance. Surveys indicate that his party should lose strength in relation to the vote it had at the end of April – the National Meeting is third in the poll, with 21% of the intentions for the first round –, even if it gains space in relation to five years. back.
The projection points to 20 to 45 deputies for the acronym, compared to 8 elected in 2017.
The far-right politician has publicly said he has no intention of running again for head of state after three setbacks. After weeks out of the picture, he announced his re-election campaign to the Assembly.
