Indian Parag Khanna, who for years served as a foreign policy adviser to the US government, joins the list of those who believe that the Ukrainian War could have been stopped before it even started. The Crimean peninsula and the Donbass could have been ceded to Russia, while Ukraine would be readily accepted into Western blocs such as NATO and the European Union, he says.
Kiev does not accept this hypothesis, but, according to Khanna, 44, “without territorial agreements, there will be no peace”. Among the consequences of the current conflict, the expert mentions the consolidation of Moscow as a kind of “North Asia”.
Regarding the main power in the region, China, he says that the advance of the Xi Jinping regime in the Indo-Pacific should not change the multipolar features of the Asian territory. But he also believes that, more than ever before, coalitions like the Quad (between the US, Australia, Japan and India) have the potential to unseat Beijing’s influence in the region.
About Brazil, he reviews an interview given to this newspaper 14 years ago, stating that if in 2008 he saw a lack of ambition to become a superpower, now he says that the country has avoided being a leader in climate diplomacy.
Khanna, who video chatted with Sheet from Singapore, he now runs FutureMap, the data-driven strategy consultancy he founded. He is the author, among others, of “The Future is Asian” and the recently released “Move” (movement; both unedited in Brazil), in which he addresses migration, especially that motivated by the climate emergency. .
This was another of the topics discussed with the specialist in international relations who, this Tuesday (7), at 9 am (Brasília time), participates in a virtual debate promoted by Cebri (Brazilian Center for International Relations). To follow along, you must sign up.
What were the main consequences of the War in Ukraine for Asian countries? One of the things that Asians have understood and have taken advantage of for some time now is that Russia is becoming an Asian country. Russian fuel, food and resources flow into Asia, especially now that Europe wants to become more self-sufficient by avoiding dependence on Russia and imposing sanctions on Moscow. Russia has no option but to export, import and trade with Asia: it has become the north of the continent, something that has been happening for the last 20 years and has been accelerated by the war.
In a recent article published in the National Interest, Mr. states that Crimea and Donbass should have been ceded to Russia and that Ukraine should have been accepted into the EU and NATO to avoid war. What do you think the two sides and the West should do to stop the conflict? Until we have a territorial agreement, there will be no peace, no stability. My opinion is that we should focus on this deal – which could have been done in 2014, eight years ago, because it was already clear that Russia would not return Crimea and would continue with militias in Donbass to control the borders.
Now Moscow has also conquered the corridor linking Donbass to Mariupol and Crimea, so it still has game to play, even if its armed forces have struggled. It would be better if there was a new legal demarcation of the country’s territory. Of course, that would mean more population transfer, and it’s humiliating for a country to lose territory. But if we look at the number of victims, refugees and economic damage, it makes more sense for Ukraine to agree with the current geographic reality rather than pretending it can fight back and win.
What are the possible consequences of China’s growing movement in the Pacific? This is a relative, non-linear scenario, because China is getting much stronger and more influential than it was in the past, but the US also remains very important – due to the military presence, investment in the region, the role of the dollar, exports . And Europe has also adopted an Indo-Pacific strategy. Asia is multipolar and will remain multipolar, even with an increasingly powerful and influential China.
What do you think of the controversial security agreement signed with the Solomon Islands? I don’t think China will necessarily get a chance to use these facilities. We’ve already seen Beijing trying to buy bilateral relations or a country’s policy, as in Sri Lanka with the port of Hambantota — now, of course, it all waned after the government’s collapse. Thus, it is not possible to be sure that, five years from now, this security agreement will really benefit China. If the government changes, and people turn against Beijing, it will come to nothing. [as Ilhas Salomão têm eleições em 2023].
Joe Biden also seems to prioritize the Pacific. How do you rate the current US government policies towards Asia? The move to Asia began with Barack Obama about a decade ago, but military and economic strategies were lacking.
Today there are three differences. 1) There is an economic strategy, trade agreements and efforts to move supply chains away from Asia to friendly nations. 2) On the military side, we have the Quad [EUA, Índia, Austrália e Japão], and these countries are determined to maintain long-term collaboration. 3) China itself, because ten years ago, many nations could have believed that China would go in a positive direction — today, nobody trusts Beijing, everyone has their suspicions. These three things make it more likely that a coalition of countries that want to limit Chinese influence will succeed.
Can you develop this idea of ”friend-shoring” further? That’s when you take supply chains that were previously housed in China and move them to countries like India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, because they’re much more trusted places in protecting intellectual property and investor rights. There is less risk that these countries will cut their exports to the US.
Another topic that Mr. he works on is climate change and, in this sense, he says that the phenomenon will accelerate South-North migrations within and between countries. What will be the consequences? Inevitably, there will be a movement of people moving from the south to the north, but most people will not move, but will seek adaptations where they live — which applies to South America, but also to Asia, particularly India. Generally speaking, northern geographies are still better off because there is more space, greater freshwater supply and better governance, which leads to higher productivity.
Are governments developing policies to ensure climate refugees get the support they need? The main thing is to reduce bureaucracy, facilitating the resettlement of people and giving them rights. Second, adequate infrastructure must be built, especially affordable housing. And third, to secure employment, to allow these people to participate in the economy.
14 years ago, in an interview with Folha, Mr. said that Brazil did not have enough ambition to become a superpower. How do you see current Brazilian diplomacy? Brazil remains a very influential country, it is a key actor in many contexts. But I don’t think he’s seen as a leader in diplomacy. Because the climate change and diplomacy equation has been ineffective – indeed, by everyone. No country has been a reliable leader in these areas. Brazil could have been one in climate diplomacy.
But I focus more on the material importance of countries and less on rhetoric. So, even if Brazil has lost a bit of credibility on the global stage, that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t focus on its relationships of influence. He should continue to prioritize them.
x-ray | Parag Khanna, 44
Born in India, he holds a PhD in international relations from the London School of Economics and a BA and MA from Georgetown University. He has served as a consultant to the US National Intelligence Council and US Special Operations Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. He founded the consultancy FutureMap and is the author, among others, of “The Future is Asian” and “Move: The Forces Uprooting”.
