Moscow’s basic agreement with Ankara stipulates that the Turkish Navy will clear the area around Ukrainian ports of naval mines and provide cargo ships carrying grain with protection.
Underground warehouses are full and storage capacity is depleted: According to the UN World Food Organization, more than 20 million tonnes of cereals intended for the world market still remain in Ukraine. In peacetime, Ukraine traded more than 50% of its exports through it of its largest port on the Black Sea, Odessa. But since the war began in late February, cargo cranes have stalled: the blockade of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has hampered imports and exports. In addition, numerous naval mines threaten navigation along the Ukrainian coast – their number is unknown. The only thing that is certain is that both Romania and Turkey have already had to neutralize several mines that drifted into the Black Sea.
However, wheat is essential – There is already a shortage of bread in several countries in Africa and the Middle East. Ukraine itself is also directly dependent on revenue thanks to grain exports. In recent weeks, Kyiv has tried to export more wheat abroad by rail. However, the different widths of the railways in Ukraine and the rest of Europe, as well as the lack of freight cars on the European side, significantly slow down potential exports in this way.
Turkey in the role of protector
Therefore, for weeks feverish efforts are being made to resume cereal exports through the Black Sea. For this reason he traveled Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Turkey. And according to media reports, it has reached a key agreement with the Turkish side: The Turkish Navy will clear the area around Ukrainian ports of naval mines and provide cargo ships carrying grain with protection.
“We are ready to ensure the safety of ships leaving Ukrainian ports.” Lavrov told a news conference in Ankara on Wednesday. “In cooperation with our Turkish partners”. One is to be set up in Istanbul coordinating body of the UN to regulate the way in which the exported cereals will then be distributed on the world market.
Ukraine is primarily interested in such an agreement, but still has significant reservations. Ukrainian representatives were not present at the meeting in Ankara. The United Nations has already proposed the establishment of a quadrilateral contact group consisting of representatives of the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine to develop a control mechanism in a possible grain corridor.
“Such a corridor could be implemented if everyone wanted it”, believes Beate Apelt, head of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Turkey. However, there are various points of contention, especially regarding the issue of landmine dams placed by the two sides off the Ukrainian coast.
“Through them, the Ukrainian navy wants to prevent amphibious operations of Russian warships off Odessa.” points out Apelt. The mines must, however, be removed so that cargo ships can sail safely. According to Turkish sources, this could be done in one to two weeks. Nevertheless, it remains doubtful whether securing the corridor via Turkish ships would be sufficient for Kyiv: For the Ukrainian side to agree, it may seek security guarantees from more countries, for example the US and Great Britain. But what if one of the two warring parties eventually bombs such an internationally escorted convoy? At that time, NATO warships would be involved, which would escalate the war even more dangerously.
DW / Tomas Latsan / Edited by: Chryssa Vachtsevanou
