Gustavo Petro’s victory in Colombia further increased the political isolation of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in Latin America. If only the closest neighbors are considered, eight of the 12 countries in South America are now governed by avowedly left-wing leaders, a scenario quite different from the one that the Brazilian president found when he took over the Planalto, in 2019.
The ex-guerrilla’s victory in Colombia strengthens the movement that has been called pink tide 2.0, a reference to the cycle of progressive governments that took over Latin America in the early 2000s and is now being renewed. The turn to the left was consolidated in December 2021 with the victory of Gabriel Boric, in Chile, preceded by the triumphs of Alberto Fernández, in Argentina, and Luis Arce, in Bolivia.
The other South American countries led by left-wing presidents are Peru (Pedro Castillo), Suriname (Chan Santokhi) and Guyana (Irfaan Ali), in addition to Venezuela, a dictatorship led by Nicolás Maduro, in power since 2013. In addition to Brazil, others three countries in South America chose names identified with the right: Guillermo Lasso (Ecuador), Luis Lacalle Pou (Uruguay) and Mario Abdo (Paraguay). All, however, have a more moderate stance and none is considered a strong ally of the Brazilian.
In Latin America, the rise of the left has gained momentum with Andrés Manuel López Obrador, elected president of Mexico in 2018, and in Honduras, who chose Xiomara Castro last year.
In 2018, when Bolsonaro was elected, the scenario was quite different. Presidents of seven countries were right or center-right (Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Mexico, Paraguay and Suriname), and another five declared themselves to be left or center-left (Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela ).
The result in Colombia raised concerns for Bolsonaro. as he showed the Sheet, the president sent a message this Monday to a broadcast list he maintains on WhatsApp in which he commented on the advance of the left in the region. “Cuba…Venezuela…Argentina…Chile…Colombia…Brazil???”, he wrote, referring to the fact that former president Lula (PT) has a chance to return to power in country.
Also on Monday, Bolsonaro commented with supporters on the kidnapping of businessman Abilio Diniz by left-wing groups in 1989. When one person mentioned Colombia, the president commented: “He is an ex-guerrilla member of the MIR, a left-wing revolutionary movement.” The speech, however, does not make it clear whether he was referring to Petro — a former M-19 guerrilla — or to the participation of members of the Chilean MIR in Diniz’s kidnapping.
According to Bolsonaro’s ministers and interlocutors, the president also drew attention to the high abstention rate in the Colombian election. Voting is not mandatory in the country, and about 45% of citizens eligible to vote did not turn up at the polls. Although high, the number represents the lowest abstention rate in two decades in Colombia. Bolsonaro, however, would be concerned that abstention in Brazil could also be high, even with mandatory voting.
The only member of the government to officially comment on Petro’s victory was vice president Hamilton Mourão, for whom the relationship between the countries is independent of the government at the moment.
“The relationship is state to state, regardless of government,” he said. “[Desejo] Lucky for Gustavo Petro, because managing a country in the situation the world is facing is not simple. We have common interests with the Colombians, especially on the issue of the Amazon.”
