Gabriel Boric received this Monday (4th) the final version of what could be the new Constitution of Chile. Now, he begins the trial by fire of his government, about to turn four months old. Until September 4, when the population will decide at the polls whether or not to accept the new Charter, the leftist has the mission to increase approval rates, both for the new code and for his own administration.
If the vote were to be held today, the chances of the text being rejected and the country remaining with the Constitution inherited from the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet would be great. A survey by the Cadem institute released on Sunday (3) shows that 51% of Chileans say they would refuse the new Charter. Another 34% stated that they would approve it, and 15% did not know how to respond.
The scenario differs from that observed in February, when the numbers were almost inverted: 56% said yes to the new Constitution, and 33% were against it. Two factors weigh on the change in scenario, according to analysts: misinformation about the content of the document and the expansion of the proposals contemplated, which makes dialogue with conservative sectors difficult.
The wording of a new Charter was approved two years ago in a historic plebiscite after a wave of protests, largely based on socioeconomic dissatisfaction, erupted in the country and put pressure on Boric’s predecessor, Sebastián Piñera. Afterwards, a Constituent Assembly was elected, raising a majority of center-left figures to draft the new Constitution.
“The Constituent Assembly resulted from dissatisfaction with the enormous inequality in Chile, but ended up putting the various local demonstrations in a boiler and taking the country to a path that was beyond what some of the protesters wanted”, says Thiago Vidal, manager of political analysis for Latin America from the consultancy Prospectiva.
The document establishes, for example, the constitutional right to abortion by voluntary decision. Today, the procedure is only legal in the country in three cases: if there is a danger to the woman’s life, if the pregnancy was the result of rape or if the development of the fetus is unfeasible – a scenario similar to that in Brazil.
It also provides for the creation of a public social security system to be financed by workers and employers —Chile currently has a privatized funded pension system— and the institution of a plurinational state, in order to recognize indigenous peoples, as did Bolivia and Ecuador.
Another sensitive point is the decentralization of the administration: Chile would cease to be a unitary state and would become a regional state, which gives greater autonomy to regions and communes.
“The proposal has important virtues, such as allowing the regions to adapt a series of national public policies to their own reality, in addition to bringing the local government closer to citizenship”, says Esteban Szmulewicz, a researcher at the Catholic University of the North.
The Senate would also be left behind and give way to a Chamber of Regions — which would make up the Legislature alongside the Chamber of Deputies. In practice, explains Szmulewicz, the expectation is that the House will have a less elite profile than the current one.
To run for the Chamber, you would need to be at least 18 years old — for the current Senate, the minimum age is 35. Seats would also be distributed taking into account gender parity and a reservation for indigenous representatives. The mandate, currently eight years, would drop to four, maintaining the possibility of reelection.
Although the last draft before the final version of the Constitution has been made public, experts warn of the widespread dissemination of fake news about the content, and Boric and his ministers attribute the widespread rejection of the text to the disinformation environment.
In March, a survey led by the NGO Derechos Digitales with 1,400 Chileans showed that, of those who said they frequently seek information about the Constitution, 66% did so through social networks. At least 58% said they had encountered claims that they later discovered to be false.
The latest Cadem poll showed that approval is higher among those who read the draft of the new draft Constitution — in this segment, 37% say they will vote yes, while among those who haven’t read it, it’s only 25%.
Approval is also higher among those aged between 18 and 24 (43%) and among those who say they are on the left (73%). Of those who identify with the right, only 12% say they will support it; of the center, 28%.
Amnesty International’s Chile office was in favor of approving the new Charter. Rodrigo Bustos Bottai, executive director, says the proliferation of rumors “absolutely out of touch with reality” worries the organization. He praises the process of social participation in the formulation of the text and says that, if approved, the Charter would represent a significant advance in terms of human rights.
But he also stresses that “the Constitution would not be a point of arrival, but a point of departure”. For the text to be approved in September, more than 50% of Chileans will need to vote in favor —the vote will be mandatory. In the scenario in which the content is approved, however, it will still be necessary to legislate and structure several of the points described there.
Here comes the difficulty that the government has presented in advancing its agenda. With the second most fragmented Congress in Latin America, behind only Brazil, according to the consultancy Prospectiva, and only half of congressmen alongside Boric, the chances of the opposition holding back the agenda are great.
The president enjoys only 33% approval, according to Cadem data. When he took over in March, that rate was 50%. “This is related to the high expectations surrounding the government itself”, says Thiago Vidal. “As he gets elected in the wake of the demonstrations, with a high rejection of the socioeconomic situation, and fails to deliver results at the speed he promised, legitimacy drops.”
In the other possibility —that of the “no” winning at the polls—, political divergence, part of the democratic game, would relegate to the country the continuity of the model adopted behind closed doors during the military dictatorship.
understand the Chilean constituent
1) When and why was it called? The Piñera government called a plebiscite, as a way of ending social protests, which with 78.27% of the votes decided to draft a new Constitution in 2020.
2) What is the composition? The Constituent Assembly has 155 members elected by popular vote. There is gender parity: 78 are men and 77 are women. The youngest member is 20 years old, and the average age is 45 years old. 17 seats were reserved for indigenous representatives. Mapuche leader Elisa Loncón presides over the collegiate. Independents and leftists occupy the majority of seats.
3) When will it be voted on? Boric is due to call a referendum for September 4th. If the new text is approved, the president will convene Congress so that the new Constitution is promulgated and, thus, replaces the old one, from the Pinochet era. If rejected, the old text is still valid, and it is still unclear if — and how — the government and legislators could try to pass it in another vote.
