The political earthquake that caused Martín Guzmán to leave the head of the Argentine Ministry of Economy was just the tip of a crisis that will last for the next few days, when other pieces that make up the presidential cabinet must be replaced. It is the result of months of tension between Alberto Fernández and his deputy, Cristina Kirchner, who have barely spoken in recent months.
The earthquake began with a speech during the celebration of the death anniversary of former Argentine leader Juan Domingo Perón, last Friday (1st), in which Fernández sent an indirect: “Power does not belong to those who have the pen or not, and but of those who have the capacity to convince. That was what Perón said, and I believe it”.
The indirect was, in fact, an attack on the deputy, who, in June, in a rare public act in which they shared the same stage, said that the president should “use the pen with those who have to give things to the country” – a reference to powerful entrepreneurs. Fernández listened, looking tired, his head in his hands.
On Saturday (2), Cristina participated in another act, also in memory of Perón, and again criticized the Argentine economic policy. It was then that Guzmán, sponsored by the deputy at the beginning of the government and later a disaffected due to the agreement he made with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), decided to resign. The resignation letter, with seven pages, gives the size of the wear and tear in the face of the bosses’ fight.
On Sunday, a meeting lasting more than six hours took place at the Casa Rosada, with the presence of Chancellor Santiago Cafiero, an ally of Fernández that Cristina removed from the position of chief of staff, and Sergio Massa, leader of the Chamber and the vice-president’s favorite. to be the chief of staff, today Juan Manzur.
One issue, however, hindered the debate and decision-making: the president did not want to consult Cristina. Estela de Carlotto, president of the Asociación Avós da Praça de Mayo and a friend of both leaders, was needed to convince Fernández to call the deputy. After two hours of deliberations, the name that emerged to replace Guzmán was Silvina Batakis, a low-key, unorthodox former head of the Economy under Daniel Scioli as governor of Buenos Aires.
In 2015, when Scioli ran for president, Batakis appeared as the likely minister for the area. Until she was chosen to lead the Argentine economy, she worked with Interior Minister Wado de Pedro, Cristina’s right-hand man.
“Decisions about the country’s future are being made among people who have more than 70% popular rejection,” he tells Sheet analyst Jorge Giacobbe, from the research institute Giacobbe & Asociados. “Cristina has 20% popular support, Alberto, 15%, and Sergio Massa, 10%. There is no way to come up with a good solution to the crisis of those who have such a bad understanding of what is happening.”
The Opina Institute, in a survey released this Monday (4), shows that 69% of Argentines say they believe the country’s economic situation will be worse in the coming months. The survey, however, carried out at the end of June, therefore before the current crisis, does not give great advantage to any opposition leader in particular.
The best-placed is former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich, with 22%. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri appear with 17%, and Javier Milei, with 16%, precisely at the moment when the country starts its pre-electoral campaign. There are elections for Congress and the Presidency next year.
Dissatisfaction is increasing. Inflation has reached almost 60% a year, unemployment is at 12.1% and the difference between the official dollar and the so-called “blue” (clandestine) is more than 100%. As the market uses the clandestine as a basis for making increases, there is no way for wages to keep up with inflation.
“We, as an opposition, are not in a position of confrontation. We ask these two adults, the president and vice president, for responsibility, so that they understand the dramas of families that do not reach the end of the month. They are more like the singers of Pimpinela [duo famoso pelas canções que simulavam brigas de casais] than the leaders of the Republic”, said the minister of government of Buenos Aires, Jorge Macri.
The opposition coalition Juntos por el Cambio, of which he is a member, issued a statement: “We demand [aliança governista] Everyone’s Front maximum institutional responsibility and democratic seriousness, immediate interruption of infighting and maximum effort to solve Argentine problems.”
