The recent presidential elections in Chile suggest a disconnection of the main left candidate from the lower class, in which the extreme right candidate enjoys a strong popularity.
On December 19, Gabriel Boric, a candidate for the left-wing Apruebo Dignidad coalition, which garnered nearly 26 percent support in the first round, will face José Antonio Kast, a candidate for the conservative Cristiano Social Front, which received about 28 percent of the vote.
How is it possible that a Pinochetista who supports a dictatorship that was so economically and humanitarianly repressive to the underclass is more popular than a candidate who emerged from social protest with a desire to represent demands for greater social justice and who did everything possible to embody the supposed yearnings for the mass revolt that began in October 2019?
One option would be to blame voters. In a certain Marxist sociology, “false consciousness” occurs when the oppressed are unable to recognize the exploitation they suffer in a capitalist society.
Their naturalization of social classes, induced by the bourgeoisie’s control of public discourse, prevents them from defending their true interests. So they would not be able to clearly distinguish which candidate best represents them.
Another, less condescending point of view would be to see what concerns the lower socioeconomic groups. When available information is reviewed, the seeming mystery disappears.
The data
When a second round of elections is anticipated, as was almost unanimously expected in Chile, and there are candidates who appeal to different cleavages, voters tend to vote sincerely.
On the other hand, in the second round, the vote is more strategic: even if you don’t like a project very much, you support the least worst.
With this in mind, I reviewed the (sincere) preferences in the 20 poorest communes in Chile, which are located in 6 of the 16 regions of the country and are in the north, center and south.
The result was that Kast got more votes than Boric in all communes, receiving an average support of 37.5%, while Boric received an average of 13.3%. In some cases, the difference was overwhelming: Kast received 24 times as many votes in Colchane, in the Tarapacá region.
Although preferences cannot be extrapolated to the rest of the country, as communes are neither demographically nor geographically representative, the trend is clear. It also adds to the research published by the Activa consultancy in early November.
In it, Kast led the voting intentions in socioeconomic groups “D” (low class, the largest group, with about 37% of the population) and “E” (poor, 13% of the population and the third largest group). About 21.3% of respondents said they would vote for Kast, while only 13% would vote for Boric.
Activa’s research highlights that the most important themes, from the wealthy middle class (“C1”) to the poor (“E”), are, in descending order, crime, pensions and health. These follow in all socioeconomic groups, with some differences in order, corruption, inflation, income inequality and immigration.
These results are similar to the latest survey by the Center for Public Studies, published in September, which shows that the main concerns of Chileans are, in descending order, crime, pensions, health and education.
Similarly, a survey carried out by the international consultancy Ipsos showed that 74% of Chileans believe the country is on the wrong track. The themes of greatest concern are crime and violence (41% of preferences), followed by poverty and inequality (37%). Of the 27 countries studied, Chile is where immigration control concerns the most (32% of respondents).
When the First Measure of Social Welfare in Chile, published in October by the Ministry of Social Development and the Family, is revised, it appears that, in many indicators, concerns are not very different on issues such as the fear of being a victim of harassment in the street or crimes, witnessing crimes (drugs, shootings, robberies, etc.), symptoms of anxiety and depression, and facing environmental problems.
Taken together, these surveys reveal that, although Chile is the country with the greatest income inequality among the 38 in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, there is a large overlap in the main concerns of Chileans.
This is where candidates’ projects become relevant.
different messages
Boric’s program focuses on four reforms: guaranteed universal access to health care, decent pensions without the current system run by private administrators, a free, quality public education system, and the formation of a green government.
In other words, in the first three points he addresses concerns relevant to all socioeconomic groups, although neither in his program nor in his speech does he address the most important, crime.
He has also shown confusion and weaknesses in his economic project, a theme he usually avoids. In fact, he is seen more at ease when talking about feminism or the environment than about inflation.
Kast’s program, on the other hand, is a monstrosity the candidate himself has turned his back on; therefore, it is more reasonable to look at what he said.
During the campaign, he highlighted much more than Boric’s fight against crime, a hard hand against irregular immigration, the importance of economic growth and the imposition of order to achieve social pacification.
While some of his proposals are extreme (such as digging ditches on the northern border) or ridiculous (developing an “anti-radical left-wing international coordination”), he addresses issues sensitive to all socioeconomic groups, with a major emphasis on crime and order to achieve the progress.
There is no ideological incompatibility between being on the left and facing the causes and consequences of crime, rationalizing immigration, promoting economic growth and ensuring the social peace necessary in any democracy.
These proposals can go hand in hand with necessary reforms in pensions, health, education, environment and gender inequality. But, for complex reasons, part of the Chilean left is not comfortable addressing these issues.
Will Boric’s candidacy be willing to approach from a progressive perspective the banners that today have Kast as the strongest candidate? Perhaps, although it may already be too late to prevent the reactionary candidate from triumphing.
translation of Maria Isabel Santos Lima
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