When trying to explain the recent improvements in the Russian army’s performance in Ukraine, some Ukrainian officers began to say: “All the dumb Russians are dead.” It’s an indirect compliment, meaning that the Russians have finally figured out a more effective way to fight this war, after an initial incompetent performance that left thousands of them dead.
Precisely because the Ukrainian War seems to have settled into a war of attrition – with Russia mostly retreating and only bombing and rocketing Ukrainian cities in the east, turning them to ruins and then advancing – you would think the worst of this conflict ended.
You would be wrong.
I believe that the Ukrainian War is about to enter a new phase, based on the following fact: many Russian soldiers and generals may be dead, but NATO’s loyal allies in Ukraine are tired. This war has already contributed to a huge rise in the prices of natural gas, gasoline and food in Europe, and if it drags on into winter many families in the European Union may have to choose between keeping warm and eating.
As a result, I think the new phase of the war is what I call Vladimir Putin’s “winter strategy” versus NATO’s “summer strategy.”
It is obvious that Putin is ready to continue pushing forward in Ukraine, in the hope that rising energy and food price inflation in Europe will eventually fracture the Western alliance. His bet appears to be this: if average temperatures in Europe are lower than normal, if average global oil and gas supplies are tighter than normal, if average prices are higher than normal, If power outages become widespread, there’s a good chance that European NATO members will start pressuring Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to strike a deal with Russia — any deal — to stop the fighting.
So Putin must surely be saying to his exhausted soldiers and generals, “Just get here until Christmas. Winter is our friend.”
It’s not a crazy strategy. Jim Tankersley of the New York Times reported last week: “White House officials fear that a new round of European penalties aimed at stemming the flow of Russian oil until the end of the year could send energy prices soaring again, hitting consumers. already besieged and plunging the United States and other economies into a severe contraction. This chain of events could exacerbate what is already a serious food crisis plaguing countries across the world.”
Efforts by NATO and the European Union to curb Russian oil exports to Europe, the report added, “could push oil prices up to $200 a barrel or more, which means Americans will pay $7 per gallon of gasoline.” Gasoline at $9 to $10 a gallon is no longer uncommon in Europe, where natural gas prices have soared by “about 700%”, Bloomberg reported, “since early last year, pushing the continent to the brink of of the recession”.
Meanwhile, NATO, US and Ukrainian officials are certainly saying to themselves, “Yes, winter is our enemy. But summer and autumn can be our friends — if we can inflict any real damage on Putin’s weary army.” now, then, at the very least, he will accept a ceasefire.”
This isn’t a crazy strategy either. Putin may be making some gains in eastern Ukraine, but at a very high price. Various military analyzes suggest that Russia has suffered at least 15,000 soldier deaths in less than five months – a staggering number – and likely twice that number of wounded. More than 1,000 Russian tanks and artillery pieces were scrapped.
US officials tell me Putin doesn’t have enough troops at the moment to try to get out of eastern Ukraine and take the port of Odessa, to make Ukraine landlocked and strangle its economy.
As the Times’ Neil MacFarquhar reported this weekend, Putin desperately needs more strength simply to keep up the recent momentum in the east, and he is already carrying out a “stealth mobilization” to get more men to the front, “without resorting to conscription. politically risky national territory. To make up for the shortfall in soldiers, the Kremlin is relying on a combination of poor ethnic minorities, Ukrainians from breakaway territories, mercenaries and militarized National Guard units” and promising large cash incentives for volunteers.
Putin is reluctant to call up more men because it would suggest that what he had told his people was just a “special military operation” in Ukraine is not only much bigger, but much worse.
NATO clearly hopes that the Ukrainian army can use the new M142 Himars (High Mobility Rocket Artillery System), which the US has transferred to Kiev, to inflict significantly more death and destruction on Russian forces in Ukraine in the summer and fall. In that case, Putin’s advances could not only stall, but even lose ground, and the Russian president could feel forced to agree to a ceasefire, a major prisoner exchange, humanitarian evacuations and better conditions for Ukrainian food exports. —all of which would help ease inflation and, hopefully, reduce pressure from Ukraine’s European allies to strike any deal with Putin.
There is no sign that Putin is ready to strike a final peace deal, but it may be possible to push him towards that kind of ceasefire, which could ease energy and food markets.
So, for all these reasons, I would say that the war in Ukraine is about to enter its most dangerous phase since the Russians invaded in February: Putin’s winter strategy meets NATO’s summer strategy.
No wonder Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshtchuk appealed to residents of Russian-controlled territories in the south to leave the region quickly so the Russians cannot use them as human shields during the expected counteroffensive. ukrainian. “You need to find a way out, because our armed forces are coming to vacate,” she said. “There will be a massive fight.”
Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing what Putin might do if his forces stall again or lose ground. That could make him more receptive to a ceasefire. It could also force him into a national mobilization to bring more troops into the fight.
There’s only one thing I’m sure of: this war in Ukraine will not –really– end as long as Putin is in power in Moscow. This is not a call to bring you down. It’s up to the Russians to decide. It is simply an observation that this has always been Putin’s war. He personally conceived, planned, directed, and justified it. It is impossible for him to imagine Russia as a great power without Ukraine. So while it is possible to force Putin into a ceasefire, I doubt it is more than temporary.
In short: this Ukrainian War is so far from over that I can’t even see the end.
